NL200 Bluff -- Spew?

[allaboutmyfetti]

With just 1 over and a flush draw out there I would think our loose aggressive villian bets again with 99-KK

[Fallen Hero]

I think pushing isn't optimal, I like bluffing the turn though.

[allaboutmyfetti]

What kinds of hands is villian checking the turn with? My vote is either a total monster or air.

Since he's most likely checking with air (or a monster), a shove doesn't make sense to me. The extra half a pot won't really give us THAT much more fold equity, 1/2 pot should do the job.

[Fallen Hero]

I'm checking the turn with a ton of hands here, not just a monster or air

[jag1138]

It's safe to say he doesn't have pocket aces (anyone who leads into the flop after flopping the nut boat isn't going to see a whole lot of profit). I personally don't like this push, because AK is not folding to that turn. The only two other likely hands would be KK or QQ, and even sometimes players will get stubborn with KK thinking "well, if you got that ace i guess I'm broke".

All that aside, the reason I don't like it is because you're risking getting stacked with a medium pocket pair (because if you get called, you are getting stacked), and also because on a board like that, you're just guessing that he won't call. After 15 hands, you don't even have an image to take advantage of to make a bluff like that. My advice, wait till you've built a solid image of a player that's got it when he moves in before making these types of plays.

[orange]

lol, I posted a hand like this in the cheese thread, except its with 33 instead of 88.

And I also lucked out on the river (was called by AQ).

/end hijack.

I think this is okay, it depends how light villan is calling here. Do you think he's folding AJ/AQ?

[Fallen Hero]

"anyone who leads into the flop after flopping the nut boat isn't going to see a whole lot of profit"

\o_ hi there

[faded]

spew!

with what other hands will you take this line?

but then again, i don't like leading the turn because that puts us in a potentially nasty river spot where villain is pot committed. i guess if you're going to bluff at this pot, this is the optimal line to take.. i just think you could have picked a better spot to bluff.

[los_toros]

I want results and the later impact on metagame! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
spew!

with what other hands will you take this line?

but then again, i don't like leading the turn because that puts us in a potentially nasty river spot where villain is pot committed. i guess if you're going to bluff at this pot, this is the optimal line to take.. i just think you could have picked a better spot to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

i mean, the way i look at it, its a cash game. if this is a good spot to bluff, i should bluff, regardless of whether there will be better spots to bluff later. i'll just reload.

and someone asked what hands I would take this line with -- i obviously would not take this line with AT. i'm unsure about whether my opponent knows this, but since my initial impression is that he was good, he should. in reality, there are very few, if any, made hands i would take this line with, bearing preflop in mind. however, do you think that even a thinking opponent can call with QQ here?