And if we're lost, we are lost together.... - Page 2

yabastid · #11 08-31-2007, 04:01 AM

wow i really hate the turn raise, calling is kinda ok. what Ax is gonna call the turn? i dont get it. on that board villian has a monster draw or a made hand that has you crushed. that turn lead is scary and i would be looking to shut down without a miracle 6 on the river.

flop check is good, turn is spew.

oh, and check behind river, as you beat nothing that is calling a bet.

woodguy · #12 08-31-2007, 09:17 AM

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oh, and check behind river, as you beat nothing that is calling a bet.

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What about betting to bluff?

sirtimo · #13 08-31-2007, 10:07 AM

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He's not going to jam with AxXh on the turn

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Really? Hmmmmm, if we were villian, should we then, since better hands fold?

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hell yes, I'd jam AxQh, AxJh here in a heartbeat, maybe Ax9H too

Beachman42 · #14 08-31-2007, 01:57 PM

Thanks for deleting the results - I think this is a pretty typical early MTT ughh spot.

I understand your pf line, but I still don't get not betting the flop in position. My reason for betting would be to take it down now, say a bet of ~150 into 195. If villian calls, then he almost certainly has some form of draw. If he c/r, I can get away w/o much concern of folding the best hand. How can you tell a turn bet is a bluff lead? It would have to be a serious blank on the turn, right? I guess I don't see taking the pot on the flop as the worst outcome of this hand.

If he calls the flop and checks the turn, I prolly lead a smallish bet, but Aces up isn't much better than where we were on the flop as half the draws just got there.

As played, I check behind on the river. We are only beating Ax and a busted str8 draw and possibly a K, but I can't see a K calling almost any turn bet.

Ansky · #15 08-31-2007, 02:13 PM

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He's not going to jam with AxXh on the turn

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Really? Hmmmmm, if we were villian, should we then, since better hands fold?

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hell yes, I'd jam AxQh, AxJh here in a heartbeat, maybe Ax9H too

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thats a pretty terrible line w/ all of those hands.

Requin · #16 08-31-2007, 02:17 PM

If the flop was like A33 the check might be reasonable but here I think a bet is significantly better than a check. I like the turn, I'd just check the river.

woodguy · #17 08-31-2007, 02:18 PM

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How can you tell a turn bet is a bluff lead?

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It will be a bluff a certain percentage of the time, no way to really tell, but checking behind can induce a bluff against certain players, especially when I check a dangerous board like this.

I check behind flops and raise turn leads both with and without hands, but usually don't check this flop (which is one of the reasons I posted it)

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As played, I check behind on the river.

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If you are in the BB spot, which hands are you leading on the river, which are you c/c and which are you c/f?

Thanks

woodguy · #18 08-31-2007, 02:23 PM

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If the flop was like A33 the check might be reasonable but here I think a bet is significantly better than a check.

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I agree.

mikeJ · #19 08-31-2007, 03:00 PM

Woodguy wants to bluff river not vtown, peeps.

To the people who don't get when it would be correct:

If woodguy bets pot, he's giving himself 1 to 1 for a bluff to succeed, or he needs to bluff 1 better hand* for 1 better hand that calls.

If he bets 3/4 pot, he's giving himself 4 to 3 for a bluff to succeed, or he needs 3 better hands* to fold for every 4 better hands that call.

If he bets 2/3 pot, he's giving himself 3 to 2 for a bluff to succeed, or he needs 2 better hands* to fold for every 3 better hands that call.

If he bets 1/2 pot, he's giving himself 2 to 1 for a bluff to succeed, or he needs 1 better hand* to fold for every 2 better hands that call.

*or more

For example, if woodguy felt that of the hands that beat A6, villain could have 3 combos of TT, 1 combo of 66, 9 combos of AT, 3 combos of AK (perhaps you discounted 3 of the possible 6 combos because villain elected to call preflop instead of reraise), and 8 other combos of hands that contain heart.

Then there's 25 total combos of hands.

You may assume that if you bet pot, villain will only c/c if he has a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but fold everything else. Then, along w/ the 8 other combos that hold a single heart, one of villain's hands is AxK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 9 combos.

If you bet pot, your opponent will fold 16 combos and call 9 combos, making a bluff profitable.

Note: I am not saying the above range/assumptions are correct, I just used them to illustrate the math behind a bluff.

woodguy · #20 08-31-2007, 03:28 PM

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Woodguy wants to bluff river not vtown, peeps.

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Yup.

I just want to know what people think his range of hands are that call the turn raise and:

1) Check call a river
2) Check fold the river

Him calling the turn raise and checking the river confused me, so I'm looking for ranges. (was also looking for comments on flop & turn, but we seem to be at the river now)

Thanks for helping with the clarity Mike