some may hate this?

[Stef]

Thanks J, I get it now. Villian has a flush here 50% of the time assuming our range is correct. Actually I guess we should be including the AA combos(he may not raise the turn with these on a 3 flush board)bringing the total to 53.3%

[Flintoff]

I just hate bet/folding.

Check call the river. I would checkaise before bet folding! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks J, I get it now. Villian has a flush here 50% of the time assuming our range is correct. Actually I guess we should be including the AA combos(he may not raise the turn with these on a 3 flush board)bringing the total to 53.3%

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we should probably discount AA about as much as Ahxh. Id be very surprised if he didnt raise AA here with or without the heart (not sure which would be better or worse not to raise with? someone wanna answer that for me?). Either way both are rare "slowplays" or variation lines.

He has seen me check-raise the flop and fire the turn with an UI gutshot but he really shouldnt think i have a flush here very often after i cap the flop. A3 A7 AK 77 or 33 are much much more likely, and even if i did spaz out with Khxh or something hes got 10 outs to redraw to a boat and another 7 if hes got a heart. Not raising AA here would be missing out on tons of value IMO, but i wont rule it out from this player on occasion.

If we discount those holdings AA and Ahxh, we are slightly ahead of his range going into the river. I think we can assume he crying calls without a heart most of the time at this point.

However, if we add even 1 combo or so for him bluff raising (even many non bluffers can try on a 4 flush board on occasion), bet/folding here as a line in general starts to look a little mehhhhh to me, but is check calling less -EV?

Gehrig I give a lot of weight to anything u say since u dont strike me as the type to do something without knowing its best. Why is this the best way to play this hand exactly?

And the fact the A was a non-heart did mean something to me at the time, but what should it mean exactly? Should I be more likely to bet call or ck call if it is a heart?

[gehrig]

u bet the river bc its better than check calling and check folding

u fold to the raise bc theres nothing for him to be bluffing with he always has top pair or a flush here

[Nick C]

Edit: Cliffs Notes version of what follows -- If Villain bluff-raises the river as much as 1 time out of 20 that he doesn't have a flush, then bet-folding is probably only very slightly better than check-calling the river. If he bluff-raises more than that, then betting could end up costing us plenty. (Remember, if Villain is going to have a flush about half of the time and will never fold a better hand to a bet, then the most a bet-fold can salvage for us versus a check-call is 0.5 BB, whereas a bet-fold can in theory cost us about 6 BB on average if Villain always raises whether he has a better hand or not.) And, anyway, I don't trust my judgment that much when I have a hand as good as a set and the pot is big.

Here's some more math (I'll try to get it right this time).

Let's simplify slightly and say that Villain has you beat half of the time on the river, prior to any action. Let's also say he's always at least calling with whatever he's got.

If he never raises a worse hand, bet-folding is then break-even.

Check-calling, on the other hand, is going to be a losing venture for us, most likely, since Villain shouldn't really expect you to fold after you make a defensive river check and he probably won't bluff all that often. So let's say you lose 9 times out of 10 when you check-call and Villain bets (probably this is overly pessimistic by at least a little bit), making check-calling and check-folding approximately equal plays that each cost us a little under 0.5 BB per hand on the river.

So, wow, we should bet-fold, right?

The problem is that Villain will most likely hopelessly bluff (or value bet his ace) when checked to more often than the 1 in 10 I gave, and so we'll lose something more like 0.3 BB on the river with a check-call.

But, of course, there's a bigger problem. If Villain makes a desperation bluff-raise on the river without a flush even as often as one out of 20 times he doesn't have a flush, then, well, that's 11 BBs we lost on those occasions (our initial river bet plus the 10 BBs in the pot when the river action began). So, with that percentage of bluff-raising, we're winning 19 BBs on the river out of 40 bets, we're losing 20 BBs the times Villain raises with a flush, and we're losing 11 BBs the time that Villain bluff-raises us out of the pot. So, on average, we're losing a little over 0.25 BB on the river with each bet-fold.

This is all speculative and I don't know what the actual percentages should be, but what I did does illustrate that Villain doesn't have to bluff-raise very often at all in a pot this big to cut deeply into the attractiveness of the bet-fold option.

[jstill]

im curious if gehrig thinks an unknown ever raises Ax no heart or if tags ever do and what % he would assign to it if nonzero. I know it doesn't seem logical and not something most of us would do but villains do stupid, irrational things a lot at low limits and this isnt the worst spot for it if he thinks i would bet fold the range of hands I might(which he really has no reason to think at this point though).

if he thinks about our hand, its most likely A7 A3 (6 combos each) 77 33 ( 3 each) AK (8 combos) or AA (1 combo) , if he has Ax with no heart. If thats my entire range, bluff raising is profitable if i ll fold those 15 out of 27 combos that don't have a heart. Even if we discount those holdings, since i bet the river, by about a third; his bluff raise is still almost neutral EV since he only needs to make a better hand fold 1:5. Not sure if villain would ever think about it like that or take this action with that hand but just kinda taking a look at it through villains eyes.

[Flintoff]

I've never ever raised that river there without the goods.

[gehrig]

[ QUOTE ]
If thats my entire range, bluff raising is profitable if i ll fold those 15 out of 27 combos that don't have a heart.

[/ QUOTE ]
i am the only person on the internet that would advocate bet/folding the river here. every other low limit opponent villain will play against that will never fold middle pair+ on the end to a raise protects u from having to call a raise

[stonescar]

[ QUOTE ]
u fold to the raise bc theres nothing for him to be bluffing with he always has top pair or a flush here

[/ QUOTE ]
You know we beat top pair, right?
Not that I disagree with bet/folding. I'm kind of torn between bet/folding and check/calling, but it might be a bet/fold against this opponent since you said he could make marginal calls if he spots a bluff.

[inferno]

Villian thinks TP is the nuts thats why he is so agressive on the flop am I correct. Mjeh I cant fold it I wish I could so a c/c line would be nice.