#11
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
[ QUOTE ]
I kinda hate the 49ers-Steelers analysis. I don't really expect it to be that close in the 4th Qtr but if it is I don't see why a seasoned team like Pit is going to choke on themselves. IMO any team that relies on their running game like SF does is a bad matchup against the Steelers. [/ QUOTE ] I completely agree with these comments. Pitt is a veteran team that just won the super bowl 2 years ago with most of the same cast they have this season. Your line of logic actually favors the Steelers, imo, as SF is a very young team. I'm all over Pitt, and the thing I'm most concerned with is a backdoor cover in the 4th. Also, it's not like AZ and STL are world beaters either. |
#12
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I've put together a new model and analysis that I think might win some dollers. [/ QUOTE ] Myturn I am interested in hearing what factors are lying on your analysis. Is it data driven, intuition driven, or a little of both? [/ QUOTE ] It's the Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-pates It starts with a baseline of all lines being correct estimations of probable outcomes. It then looks at a series of what most would cause noise, but are actually the intangibles that pick out winners. |
#13
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
Was looking through the team-by-team turnover margins for the season and found another bet:
Dallas at Chicago -3 (Risk 1.05u to win 1u) Dallas has "looked good" this season and Chicago has "looked bad" which is why the Bears are considered even to the Cowboys on a neutral field right now. However, that's largely because Dallas is +4 in TO margin (best in NFC) while Chicago is -3 (2nd worst). So yeah, I'm on the Bears tonight. (Side note: I think the square part of me loves having action on the SNF game. I've bet it every week thus far.) |
#14
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
[ QUOTE ]
Jacksonville +3.5 -110 5dimes WIN San Francisco +9.5 +106 matchbook LOSS Dolphins +3 +105 Bodog PUSH [/ QUOTE ] 1-1-1 for +/-0.00 units on 3.1u bet very exciting--hooray for backdooring Dolphins |
#15
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
OK, I'm going to use this thread one more time since my other picks are all here. I've got:
Tennessee/New Orleans under 46.5 (Risk 2.1u to win 2.08u) Pretty happy with the price I got here. Decided to bet half an hour out in case there was a late sharp bounce-back on the price. |
#16
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I can beat the best lines...GMAFB trying to beat WA [/ QUOTE ] i dunno why but "Grab me a [censored] beer" instantly came to mind. I've never heard that but for some reason I actually read it like that without a thought. What the hell does it actually mean? |
#17
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
LOL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
I like your style. |
#18
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I doubt I can beat the best lines...GMAFB trying to beat WA [/ QUOTE ] i dunno why but "Grab me a [censored] beer" instantly came to mind. I've never heard that but for some reason I actually read it like that without a thought. What the hell does it actually mean? [/ QUOTE ] http://www.google.com/search?q=GMAFB |
#19
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
[ QUOTE ]
LOL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I like your style. [/ QUOTE ] all in good fun [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
#20
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Re: MyTurn\'s NFL picks
Well, now that the Assani/MyTurn fun's out of the way, I'm happy to report that I went 4-3, +3.07 units this week, losing all 3 one unit plays and winning all the bigger ones. That pushes my NFL record to 8-5, +5.91 units on the year.
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