Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question

[Sykes]

Assuming amateur moves in with any two cards and "pro" knows this, then..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.001% 79.70% 00.30% 50152262004 190206810.00 { TT+ }
Hand 1: 19.999% 19.70% 00.30% 12394496376 190206810.00 { random }

Yes, I know most likely the amateur will take some chips off the pro before he gets one of these 5 hands, still..

20% to win pushing ATC!

[daryn]

wow i'm awesome

[WutRUTryin2Hit]

This is solvable mathematically I think. The data is all on sharkscope HU leaderboards, just find a limit where there are a range of players with a skill difference at least as big as the skill difference between the 100NL player and the pros in the high stakes showdown. Then, check who has the biggest ROI at that level, and just assume that the pros have that edge versus the 100NL player. So, if the pro has a 16% edge over the 100NL guy (who will win 42% of his matches), odds of him winning 3 matches in a row are:

.42 X .42 X .42

or something like that basically. The fact that it is 200BBs deep means the pros will win more, but also we are taking the BEST roi from the leaderboard, maybe that evens it out a little. Maybe take a little edge away from the 100NL player to adjust for the structure I guess.

Anyway, my opinion without going and looking up these numbers is that assuming the 100NL player is competent and beats or breaks even at 100NL, out of 26 trials vs. 8 people, he'd probably win about 1.5 times on average, assuming he doesn't have huge HU leaks. 200 BBs is deeper than a normal match, but it's not like it's megadeepstacked enough to get away from coolers or even semi-coolers if the match is playing aggro enough.

[Sykes]

Also.. against warrantofice's pro calling hand range (99+, AJo+, ATs+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.513% 69.83% 00.69% 128891634616 1265976546.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.487% 28.80% 00.69% 53162783492 1265976546.00 { random }

so ~30% of the time..

[Butcho22]

Stevebets won, so I say yes.

[daryn]

[ QUOTE ]
Also.. against warrantofice's pro calling hand range (99+, AJo+, ATs+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.513% 69.83% 00.69% 128891634616 1265976546.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.487% 28.80% 00.69% 53162783492 1265976546.00 { random }

so ~30% of the time..

[/ QUOTE ]

you should probably be calling with a lot more than 99+, ATs+, AJo+, so it should be even more than 30%. basically this shows just what a joke hu poker really is

[Simo_8ball]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also.. against warrantofice's pro calling hand range (99+, AJo+, ATs+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.513% 69.83% 00.69% 128891634616 1265976546.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.487% 28.80% 00.69% 53162783492 1265976546.00 { random }

so ~30% of the time..

[/ QUOTE ]

you should probably be calling with a lot more than 99+, ATs+, AJo+, so it should be even more than 30%. basically this shows just what a true test of skill hu poker really is

[/ QUOTE ]

[NNNNOOOOONAN]

[ QUOTE ]
Stevebets won, so I say yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome. although, i think he may have won more playing HU v. grimstarr

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also.. against warrantofice's pro calling hand range (99+, AJo+, ATs+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.513% 69.83% 00.69% 128891634616 1265976546.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.487% 28.80% 00.69% 53162783492 1265976546.00 { random }

so ~30% of the time..

[/ QUOTE ]

you should probably be calling with a lot more than 99+, ATs+, AJo+, so it should be even more than 30%. basically this shows just what a joke hu poker really is

[/ QUOTE ]

actually..

with 200bb and 30 minute time levels, i really think you can wait around for TT+ and take the extra 10% equity.

[warrantofice]

For the sake of the argument lets use my larger hand selection, I'm pretty sure for the first 2 or 3 tournaments the pro's will have a difficult time folding AKs or 99 towards a villian moving in every single hand, obv. after an extended trial they will realize that waiting for 10,10 will be more profitable, but if we can expect donk to be winning the first matches at approx. 30% of the time, or 1 in every 3.3 matches thats really changes the odds, that means the donk will win the an 8 person heads up match 1 in every 36 tries and a 16 person 1 in every 119 tries.
Therefore, i believe that it is safe to assume that a donk with an infinite backer, who loves to see show down races, would see his donkey horse win one, 8-person per year.