Blackjack

[ProfessorBen]

Can you show us the stove? I find it hard to believe the turn bet is -EV.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
River 9

[/ QUOTE ]

THATSATOOMAAAANY!

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you show us the stove? I find it hard to believe the turn bet is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked stove just to see how bad it might be when it just didn't look right to me. A broadway overcard to your pair against one opponent has a chance. Against two it is slim. Here we have three opponents, we have a board with two suited, and three connected. Our kicker isn't even any good because hitting an ace would put four to the top straight up there. This was a terrible flop. Middle pair with ace kicker is decent when the overcard to your pair is a rag and you have one or two opponents.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,727,427 games 17.578 secs 724,054 games/sec

Board: Qd Jd Th 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.991% 20.59% 03.47% 2620112 442030.17 { AJo }
Hand 1: 28.433% 25.56% 02.96% 3252609 376622.67 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 28.431% 25.55% 02.96% 3252378 376535.50 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 19.145% 17.44% 01.76% 2220100 223567.67 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }


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Sorry for the bad formatting, I don't do this often. The AJ off has only 24% equity against really bad players. I'm saying that one guy cold called two preflop with a 33% range and that the sb calls a raise 75%. If the players have standards any better than this it continues to get worse. I think, at best, PJ was drawing to two outs on the flop.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Joker--

Good. Glad to see you bet the turn. Preflop and flop seem completely totally mandatory. --Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

In games with any reasonable level of tightness, yes, the preflop raise looks good. In a game full of people who will liberally call two bets cold it is not so good. On the flop, if you pair, you would like players to either fold to your bet or make incorrect calls. When several people play, as we have here, everyone will be getting at least 12 to 1 to call on the flop. It is surprising that one player did fold on the flop as anyone with a single card 8 or higher had odds to continue. In a game where you have lots of loose callers willing to see the flop for two bets with almost a 50% range, only the very strongest non-paired, non-suited hands should be raised... specifically, only AK.

Now, if he thinks there is a reasonable chance of isolating this loose limper with the raise then I like it. It is a judegment call based on his assessment of the table, but not anywhere near mandatory in my opinion.

[StrictlyStrategy]

Calling with a nine isn't very good, I'd be like omgcall, think about it, and muck.

Calling with an 8 is lol

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can you show us the stove? I find it hard to believe the turn bet is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked stove just to see how bad it might be when it just didn't look right to me. A broadway overcard to your pair against one opponent has a chance. Against two it is slim. Here we have three opponents, we have a board with two suited, and three connected. Our kicker isn't even any good because hitting an ace would put four to the top straight up there. This was a terrible flop. Middle pair with ace kicker is decent when the overcard to your pair is a rag and you have one or two opponents.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,727,427 games 17.578 secs 724,054 games/sec

Board: Qd Jd Th 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.991% 20.59% 03.47% 2620112 442030.17 { AJo }
Hand 1: 28.433% 25.56% 02.96% 3252609 376622.67 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 28.431% 25.55% 02.96% 3252378 376535.50 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 19.145% 17.44% 01.76% 2220100 223567.67 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }


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Sorry for the bad formatting, I don't do this often. The AJ off has only 24% equity against really bad players. I'm saying that one guy cold called two preflop with a 33% range and that the sb calls a raise 75%. If the players have standards any better than this it continues to get worse. I think, at best, PJ was drawing to two outs on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your handranges are wayyyyyyy too generous for a standard live game there with a limper and a coldcaller. People are getting friskier with a lot of those hands that you listed (55+, K9, AK, KQ, even quite likely Q9, definitely 98), and aren't going to show up too often with some of the bottom range. Using stove in the fashion that you've done it here, indiscriminately, isn't really a worthwhile exercise and even doing so his hand doesn't hold up that badly). The exclusion of a lot of the straightening and strong pair+draw hands will leave up a lot of weaker draws, which you absolutely need to bet against, as well as hands that are weakish in the pair+ department like T8s, which you also need to bet the turn vs.

PJ played this hand fine.

Rob

[Chipspin]

sssssStandard.

I really hope two of these guys had an 8 with no other draw. When running bad, sometimes I need reaffirmation that there really is a lot of free money at the poker table.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling with a nine isn't very good, I'd be like omgcall, think about it, and muck.

Calling with an 8 is lol

[/ QUOTE ]

You are probably right about the 8. But 9 is a call easily with these pot odds... not as an open ender but as a gutshot. A preflop raise with this many callers gives four outers odds to continue, even three outers if you say that the 8 of diamonds is not an out... and this is only figuring 3 small bets implied odds.

[emerson]

You say I'm being generous with these ranges? Generous in which direction? Should they be tighter or looser?

But I'll point out something for the two directions you may go. The looser the ranges the worse the pre-flop raise would be. The tighter the ranges the worse the turn bet would be.

But, anyway, please propose some ranges and we'll take a look. We are trying to improve our poker here, not get approval from our peers. If PJ were certain of his play on this hand he would not have posted it.

[StrictlyStrategy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling with a nine isn't very good, I'd be like omgcall, think about it, and muck.

Calling with an 8 is lol

[/ QUOTE ]

You are probably right about the 8. But 9 is a call easily with these pot odds... not as an open ender but as a gutshot. A preflop raise with this many callers gives four outers odds to continue, even three outers if you say that the 8 of diamonds is not an out... and this is only figuring 3 small bets implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Figure the times we hit a K, we folding?
What about when we hit the suited 8, or when an eight comes and we still lose when he has AK or a flush draw hits or the board pairs or we just end up chopping with someone else.

It definitely is not an easy call. If it is a call, it's pretty close and I think only an excellent player should make it.