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#11
11-14-2007, 06:58 AM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
This looks good to me. Villain should be b/f KK, QQ and maybe betting TT and below, KJ, QJs, JTs, KQ, KT, K9s, K8s. @ Apanage. Are you really c/c KK and QQ and weak Ax, x<J here against a TAG? If so, unless the TAG is a moron you loose 1 bet close to 100% when you call. If you check to me on that river I am only betting hands that beat KK but I am calling hands that loose to KK. [/ QUOTE ] Of course it is so but that is because the river card sucks.It is not like you donīt lose the bet you check/call by bet/folding. But I think it is as likely to induce a bluff on river as it is that he will call a bet. What hand can Hero have that you expect to be called with if you bet KK on river? I canīt see any hand that donīt beat KK that will be willing to call.He obvioulsy hasnīt got a J seen we havenīt heard from him on earlier streets. 
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#12
11-14-2007, 07:15 AM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
Of course it is so but that is because the river card sucks.It is not like you donīt lose the bet you check/call by bet/folding. [/ QUOTE ] Where did I say bet>c/c? My standard reply to you: reread plz. This hand is not about what you would do but what villain in this hand would do. c/c sucks from villains point of view when he has a good pp. TAGs in your games might bet worse hands than KK when checked to. But they dont in my games and I am sure that OP wont. c/c costs very close to 1 BB when Hero bets. But c/f sucks a bit as well as the HERO TAG just might be tilting or decide to bluff bet a low pp. So even if c/f > c/c he is still folding a winner sometimes. This is what makes some TAGs bet KJ, QJ, JT, QQ, KK, TT, 99 because it prevents them getting valueowned when c/c and folding the best hand when c/f. I am not gonna reply to you again because it is stealing not only my day but also the point of this thread.
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#13
11-14-2007, 01:16 PM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
[ QUOTE ] Where did I say bet>c/c? [/ QUOTE ] By saying that he could bet/fold a number of hands youīre actually saying either that B/f is >> than C/c or that he is not capable of making the best EV decision. [ QUOTE ] My standard reply to you: reread plz. [/ QUOTE ] As usual there is no meaning for me to reread because I always understand your posts.But Iīm obviously rambling since you never understands mine. [ QUOTE ] This hand is not about what you would do but what villain in this hand would do. [/ QUOTE ] OP wondered if this was a good spot to bluffraise river. To determine if it is a good spot or not you have to understand why villain is betting river.Since he has 26/21/2 stats which is very similar to mine and many other players in this forum we can put ourselves in villains shoes to get a grip of what he is thinking. Of course similar stats does not say that we play the same postflop, but approaching the problem in this way is as good as any other approach. So If I were villain I know that any bet that is going into the pot is -EV for me but I canīt just lie down and die because the pot already contains 7.20 BB? I would never bet/fold any hand here except perhaps KQ.In fact I would never ever bet any hand below ace pairs and it is reasonable to think that villain thinks the same way I do.If he has QJ,KK,QQ or something like that he canīt possibly think that you intend to call with a worse hand. If he reads your hand you canīt really have a hand that pays him off on river can you? Of course there are not many players that will bluffbet or valuebet light when checked to either.But again I canīt see why a bet/fold ever would be appropriate unless he can read you like a book If that logic is correct then it is not a good spot to bluffraise river which also was my advice to OP (which necessarily isnīt a good advice, but still the best I can come up with) [ QUOTE ] But c/f sucks a bit as well as the HERO TAG just might be tilting or decide to bluff bet a low pp. So even if c/f > c/c he is still folding a winner sometimes. This is what makes some TAGs bet KJ, QJ, JT, QQ, KK, TT, 99 because it prevents them getting valueowned when c/c and folding the best hand when c/f. [/ QUOTE ] Bet/folding obviously doesnīt prevent them to getting owned since there are a number of players advocating Hero to raise. [ QUOTE ] I am not gonna reply to you again because it is stealing not only my day but also the point of this thread. [/ QUOTE ] That is just a really unfair comment.Evaluate exactly how my posts deviates from the point of this thread. I do think youīre a good poster Oink but I canīt really understand your urge for abusing other posters.
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#14
11-14-2007, 01:39 PM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
I usually close the laptop after this one.
Brass are you a nit? Unless you show up as 18/14 on my PAHUD i'm bet-folding, well, nothing here. Because you don't have AQ and def not AK and you aren't raising AT because i 3-bet pf. So what you have backdoor clubs? No way. So i call my whole range. fwiw i put you on 97.
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#15
11-14-2007, 01:50 PM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
I usually close the laptop after this one. Brass are you a nit? Unless you show up as 18/14 on my PAHUD i'm bet-folding, well, nothing here. Because you don't have AQ and def not AK and you aren't raising AT because i 3-bet pf. So what you have backdoor clubs? No way. So i call my whole range. fwiw i put you on 97. [/ QUOTE ] I could definitely have clubs, AK or AQ here. Why do those sound so preposterous?
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#16
11-14-2007, 01:55 PM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
Then again...
[ QUOTE ] This looks good to me. Villain should be b/f KK [/ QUOTE ] Nope...
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#17
11-14-2007, 02:00 PM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
The thing about Villain betting the river with KK is that he is hoping to get value from a really small range. Basically 77 and below, which a) might play the flop/turn differently, and b) often fold the river. So many draws missed that he's almost begging you to raise (well not really, but you know what I mean). I'd say he's always calling you here.
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#18
11-14-2007, 02:01 PM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I usually close the laptop after this one. Brass are you a nit? Unless you show up as 18/14 on my PAHUD i'm bet-folding, well, nothing here. Because you don't have AQ and def not AK and you aren't raising AT because i 3-bet pf. So what you have backdoor clubs? No way. So i call my whole range. fwiw i put you on 97. [/ QUOTE ] I could definitely have clubs, AK or AQ here. Why do those sound so preposterous? [/ QUOTE ] My default is to assume that you cap AK, cap AQ like 1/2 i'd say (probably a lot more vs. me). Then i bet this river and you RAISE. Strong play IMO. So you rarely have an ace but more often have clubs, but how often do you have clubs and what clubs do you have? I dunno I don't fold, people don't fold. toodaloo.
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#19
11-14-2007, 02:05 PM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
i really like this, do it in terms of math, if you risk 1BB to win 7.2BB, then if your play is profitable 1 out of 6.2 times your break even. Against a TAG he is definitely laying it down enough to make this profitable, VNH SIR
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#20
11-14-2007, 02:07 PM
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Re: Bluff river raise against a TAG
FWIW, it might be good just for the times you get him off KQ or QTs or something. I haven't stoved that though. He would certainly play them like this imo.
Ironically, KQ doesn't run that different from KK vs. your river raising range, but of course at the table, he will instacall kings and usually throw KQ away easily.
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