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#11
05-17-2007, 11:02 AM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
I don't think you need to have much fear of a higher straight (though CO could have flopped an equal one) and as the PFR'er FD is a small part of MP's range (I doubt CO has a bare FD). I agree with others that you have little FE.
I'd probably go for a call if stack sizes were all the same but MP is going to fold or push and that screws up your odds...fold 
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#12
05-17-2007, 11:03 AM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
I donīt understand why everybody is seeing monsters under the bed. MP is repping exactly missed overs and CO thinks he beats that, how is this not an easy push? When I shove my sets in this spot everybody folds all the time. True, we donīt have much FE vs sets and the straight, but I donīt think that is their entire range.
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#13
05-17-2007, 11:04 AM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
[ QUOTE ]
Good to see such quick, consistent responses. I folded because I was worried about the bigger draws. [/ QUOTE ]What draws were you worried about? I think you only need to discount your outs slightly...but I agree its a fold.
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#14
05-17-2007, 12:52 PM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
[ QUOTE ]
MP is repping exactly missed overs and CO thinks he beats that [/ QUOTE ] Based on such little knowledge of the situation this seems pretty exact. I certainly do not put MP on missed overs. He cbet the flop and that could mean that missed overs are in his range but its not the entirety of it. CO thinks he can beat MP so I put him on a set, two pair, pair + flush draw, straights, TPTK, overpair? I just don't see the value in shoving this spot with zero FE.
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#15
05-17-2007, 01:33 PM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] MP is repping exactly missed overs and CO thinks he beats that [/ QUOTE ] Based on such little knowledge of the situation this seems pretty exact. I certainly do not put MP on missed overs. He cbet the flop and that could mean that missed overs are in his range but its not the entirety of it. CO thinks he can beat MP so I put him on a set, two pair, pair + flush draw, straights, TPTK, overpair? I just don't see the value in shoving this spot with zero FE. [/ QUOTE ] I think zero FE is a pretty gross exaggeration. I didnīt say I put MP on missed overs, read my post. I said that he is repping missed overs with his tiny bet. That means that COīs range is probably wider than usual, it doesnīt mean he loves his hand. I think CO has one pair a lot, and we are 47% vs a pair. The situation would obviously be entirely different if MP bet 8 and CO raised to 20. My point is this is a different situation where our pot equity and fold equity is much higher.
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#16
05-17-2007, 04:29 PM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
[ QUOTE ]
I donīt understand why everybody is seeing monsters under the bed. MP is repping exactly missed overs and CO thinks he beats that, how is this not an easy push? When I shove my sets in this spot everybody folds all the time. True, we donīt have much FE vs sets and the straight, but I donīt think that is their entire range. [/ QUOTE ] wow that's optimistic...
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#17
05-17-2007, 04:40 PM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
The chances that our flush draw is crushed are not really that big, but MP's stack size is a problem (like someone pointed out, if he stays in, it's quite possible he'll push). Also, we haven't really heard from SB yet, although, let's face it, most likely he's going to fold.
I think mainly it's just a really icky spot to be in. I don't like any of your options at this point.
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#18
05-17-2007, 04:53 PM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
[ QUOTE ]
you've invested so little [/ QUOTE ] I see people say this about these kinds of hands and it always bugs me... how much money you've already put into the pot in a cash game doesn't matter, asides from how it influences pot & bet size vs. effective stacks.
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#19
05-17-2007, 04:59 PM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
My biggest issue is that if I get called, its nearly always by a set, a bigger flush draw, or maaaaybe two pair. Of course, its hard to say with unknowns, but if I'm against a set or nut flush draw, I have about zero fold equity, and I'm between a 35/65 and a 40/60 dog. Against top two its closer to 50/50.
At the time, the way I saw it was that if I shove and get called, I'm in poor shape, and if I flat call and a flush hits, there's a decent chance I get stacked by a higher flush.
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#20
05-17-2007, 05:28 PM
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Re: 50NL: I called loose and now have no idea what to do
I think this is an easy call preflop and a fine call or push. Of course, if you plan on folding here I would fold preflop. Y'all a buch of weak-tight nits.
MP's range is anything he raises with and CO's range is TP+. We're calling if the table is loose passive and MP will just call- we're calling 2.2:1, we only need ~3:1 which we will have if MP calls. We might not get paid off huge if a flush hits, but villians are dumb and pay of the most amazing things. That makes up for any slight shortage in pot odds. I can decide to dump it on the turn if the action continues to be insane, I'm in position, I'll know more before I have to make the big descision. Pushing is fine too because we get to see two cards, we are ahead of everyone's range, and we have lots and lots of FE no matter what you nits think. I would push more on a tight aggro table- although when called I am behind more, I have more FE so it balances nicely.
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