[25 NL, 5-handed] Set over set, but can I fold? (long)

[ama0330]

Hahaha dude, just relax. There's more to poker than mathematics. Don't get all caught up in equity calculations - just focus on what you know and don't try and guess or draw conclusions you can't justify.

You need to get comfortable with playing against a range as opposed to a hand. What PokerStove does is calculates how likely you are to win given the board, your hand, and your opponents range. You can never actually see your opponents cards, which is why playing a range is so important - its like an educated guess.

The calculation I did with pokerstove was based on the range that you gave me. Here is is again:

Board: Jd As Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 70.4521 % 69.87% 00.58% { TdTs }
Hand 2: 29.5479 % 28.97% 00.58% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

What that means is that given there are two cards to come, and we have assigned a range of JJ+, AK/AQ, you are 70% likely to win the hand at showdown and 30% to lose - a considerable advantage.

Clear your mind and don't think about anything other than this: You are way ahead of your opponents range and therefore you want to get as much of your money (preferably all of it) into the pot as possible

Thats all that matters. The reason that folding to any shove here is so bad is because no matter what your opponent does on the flop, we are not deep enough nor are we playing high enough to change our range we have given him. So if you fold at any time, you will be folding a 70/30 advantage. i.e. very bad!

Your strategy on the flop is to get all your money in. So why not just bet $1, then hope he raises? Well because he's probably not going to. Why not just shove it all in? Well because he might fold a hand which we beat. So we take a line where we raise big, giving him the chance to either call incorrectly or push over us, making our job even easier.

The reason we are not folding to a shove is that the shove in itself does not narrow his range. We don't know enough about him to say "shoving over a big 3 bet is always the nuts".

[bigbb33]

[ QUOTE ]

The reason we are not folding to a shove is that the shove in itself does not narrow his range. We don't know enough about him to say "shoving over a big 3 bet is always the nuts".

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I see. Obviously part of the calculations must be how he will respond to my raise: If it is assumed that he will shove with any of his range, then the 70/30 number is correct.

But what if he only shoves with a set? Then the 70/30 goes out the window. Of course we can't conclude that with only 5 hands, and none postflop, and a 'general postflop range' of an unkown opponent assumes that he will shove the raise with enough % of his hands that are behind to make it +ev.

Suppose another scenario, scenario B. Opponent has same range as in scenario A (that is, AA-QQ, AK-AQ), but his postflop 'shove to a 3bet raise on the flop' is only top set. That would make folding correct, right? So the preflop range is only useful for the preflop decision of mine: call (set value), fold, raise. On the flop another range has to be used, which is necessarily a subset of the preflop range.

So let's say his preflop range is AA-QQ, AK-QQ. When I said 'he's probably continuation betting' in my original post, what I meant was 'his flop 2/3-3/3 pot bet range = his preflop opening range'. Cool. Then, when I raise him, another range comes up: his postflop, 3betted shove range. ie the range of hands in which he will just shove my flop range. I don't know anything about this in the actual hand, so I assume that it's = preflop opening range? If that's true, then the 70/30 bit still applies, and it makes sense. Likely its somewhat less, but still over 50 for me, and so +ev to call.

I find this mathematical bit really cool, although you are probably correct in saying that it's just overcomplicating 25 NL. Still, I enjoy talking about it and would appreciate replies.

To formulate a bit more theory:

1. At any point at which a player has an opportunity to make a decision (fold, raise, call), that player has a range of hands in which he will do so.
2. If you know all of a players ranges, you can play optimally.

So how does one go about reading (learning) about a players ranges? That's the big question if you assume my premise #2 above is correct.


Again, this stuff is really cool and I hope people reply and talk about it. I've got to read Sklansky's book more to learn more about it, but I want to discuss it here too.

[ama0330]

Accurately ranging an opponent is not an exact science and to give you a step by step on how to do this is beyond the scope of a single post. It depends on what you know about your opponent, what level you are playing, his image, your image, etc etc. The bottom line is that you have to be approximate and without any information on your opponent you have to be liberal with his range. That's why most of us use heads up displays which keep track of how many hands our opponents are playing - it gives us a few more pieces of the puzzle. Being an inexact science you are always going to mis-range your opponent and I've made this mistake loads of times.

Here's a ranging story (relayed to me by tufat23) - there was a huge tournament at our local card club here in london called the GSOP (Gutshot Series of Poker). First prize was something like £20,000, a massive prize. So tufat was telling me about this one hand at the final table, with about 5 or so left. Our Hero picks up JJ in the cutoff and raises it up to 4BB. The SB re-raises, and the BB flat calls. (The details might be a little off here, but this is the basic idea.) Our hero flat calls also.

The flop comes A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], giving the Hero a set. The SB bets out for 3/4 and the BB pushes all in! Hero tanks for about 10 minutes, then folds. The SB calls all in and flips KK, the BB flips AA. The Hero flips his folded jacks and the room goes bezerk. What a fold!!

Why is it that our hero was able to make such a fold, and why would I recommend he do the same thing again? Because he was FLOODED with information. He was at the final table of a tournament with a massive first prize. He had played 2 days of poker with his villains, he knew their styles. He probably knew them from outisde the tournament too. He knew that no way would the BB be risking his tournament life with less than a powerhouse, especially given the prize structure was such that doing so would cost him several thousand pounds. All this information surely meant that he was looking straight down the barrel of an overset and he made one of the best folds I've ever heard. He didn't need a range - only two hands were possible.

Now lets take our situation, sitting at NL25 versus an unknown. What do we know? ......nothing. We have no reason to think we aren't good, and we simply can't fold. Once you get more information on your opponent you can start boxing him in and tightening his range, but most of the time you are going to have to get used to playing against a very wide range.

[Freelancer]

@ama your responses have been gold. Good work.

@bigbb Congratulations you are one step ahead of the crowd. You realize there is odds and math to the game, but a lot is still fuzzy. Not a big deal at all, hand reading in particular comes from playing a lot of hands and practicing. Keep up the good work. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[gimmetheloot]

Uh, why is AJ/AT/JTs/KQo/KQs not in the dudes range? Note, this will put you farther ahead I *think*

Seems like AK-AT/AA/KK/JJ/KQo/s/23o is a pretty good range for him.

[AJGibson]

tl;dr cliff notes anyone?

[Freelancer]

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tl;dr cliff notes anyone?

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To tight range by OP on to little information.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
get it all in and be happy

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I'm never ever folding this. Ever. If I get a set and get all-in with it I feel good about it every single time.

[kurto]

Dude... I didn't read the whole post. You're way overthinking because you put the key info at the top:

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Been at the table for 5 hands, this villain has folded all. He raised from the small blind to 1.5. This shows more strength than raising from the button, so it cuts down his range.



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5 hands is meaningless. Period.

The range you give is great for full ring... I think it might be a little tight for shorthanded.

For 100bb at $25 tables, you should be willing to get it all in with a set 99.9% of the time. Oh well... bad luck... reload.

postflop- you have half your stack in... villain would play back with 2 pair, tptk and draws.... play it out.

[Splossy]

&%*& the range. You flopped a set. Just bet it. You lose money from set over set situations so infrequently it's not worth the analysis.