QQ hand - Page 2

dayninja · #11 02-23-2006, 04:37 AM

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Though, the fact that he didn't bet the turn leads me to believe he might have a PP < J.

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I think the fact that he didn't bet the turn makes it look more like he has AA or KK. If he had TT or something I think he would bet the turn as that turn card is actually a good one for him as he was banking on no one being able to beat a J. Now for AA or KK that turn card changes things.

Think about it, say in this hand ur the CO and you have TT, u bet turn and you get check-raised, you are going to lay it down probably. Now switch your cards to AA or KK and we don't want to lay it down. Any sense?

SGS

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CO has AA/KK. CO bets turn. SGS calls. Fish c/r. Wow that's super strong from the fish. I guess you can fold, unless you have boat outs. CO loses one BB on turn/river combined.

CO has AA/KK. CO bets turn. SGS c/r. SGS's hand makes no sense. Fish folds. CO doesn't fold becuase SGS's hand makes zero sense. CO probably wins more than he would have if he checked behind like a weak tightie who thought more about OMG THE J PAIRED instead of trying to read likely hand ranges.

CO has AA/KK. CO bets turn. SGS calls. Fish calls. CO wins two extra BB.

I think TT is less likely to bet here. It's obvious you most likely have a scared QQ or KK or maybe AdKx type hand. AA is a really good hand here. I don't know why AA wouldn't bet. Really, CO, if he has AA, only has to worry about fish at this point because its pretty obvious what SGS has. This is not a way ahead way behind situation.

TheHip41 · #12 02-23-2006, 05:23 AM

i'd call the river, because you will win this 1-13 times.

Dazarath · #13 02-23-2006, 07:23 AM

SGS, I don't disagree with you, and I don't disagree with dayninja. This is why another read would be useful. Preflop stats tell a little, but we need to know if the CO is aggressive or not, and if he's a straight-forward player.

These are the two likely plays that come to my mind when I read the hand:
1) The CO is a straight-forward, more passive player. I don't mean ridiculously passive, but the type who slows down to scare cards. He 3-bets the flop, and checks behind the turn when the top card pairs, trying to get to showdown cheaply.
2) The CO is a more aggressive, tricky player. He doesn't want to lay down TT-99 because of the chance that he may be ahead of AK, and maybe the chance to push you off QQ. He 3-bets the flop and checks behind the turn, planning to call one bet on the river to get to showdown.

I have seen both of these plays made before, but the type of players who make them are very different.

SA125 · #14 02-23-2006, 09:04 AM

I could see MP2 having 77-TT here, CO with AA-KK-TT and can't see either with 22 or 44. I would make the call closing the action and wouldn't be surprised if I won or lost after that wierd turn action.

Bill King · #15 02-23-2006, 10:39 AM

smells like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to me.. you backing off of the hand because of his relative strength did exactly what he wanted by showing flop aggression, and that is get a free river card.. i am pretty sure you have the best hand here most of the time.

Bill King · #16 02-23-2006, 10:41 AM

who caps the preflop action with a solo J? most likely you'll need JJ to do that preflop so hes essentially puting the option of quads as a reason to check the turn? im not so sure about that. i think you missed bets here on the turn to be honest.

Dazarath · #17 02-23-2006, 10:50 AM

The flop and turn play could be AdKd, but I doubt he calls that river with A-high when there's a preflop capper left to act behind him.

Bill King · #18 02-23-2006, 10:56 AM

true.. the turn check i would think would be a good spot to bet a J though, as it improves anybody with a pair, like QQ.

when i originally read it i figured him for KK, which would make sense because he would probably raise on the river if he had AA, he is still semi-afraid of hero having AA probably.

StellarWind · #19 02-23-2006, 02:03 PM

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I think the fact that he didn't bet the turn makes it look more like he has AA or KK. If he had TT or something I think he would bet the turn as that turn card is actually a good one for him as he was banking on no one being able to beat a J. Now for AA or KK that turn card changes things.

Think about it, say in this hand ur the CO and you have TT, u bet turn and you get check-raised, you are going to lay it down probably. Now switch your cards to AA or KK and we don't want to lay it down. Any sense?

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Checking the turn through with AA/KK is a terrible play. Yes he could have done it but you cannot be making 13-1 folds based on that idea. You are a substantial favorite to have this player beat.

He could have a lower pocket pair and he could have A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. You don't believe he could call the river with AK but why shouldn't he? Did you cap the flop? Did you bet the turn? Did you bet the river? If your preflop cap range is AA-JJ, AK, AQ then which hands should CO put you on now?

StellarWind · #20 02-23-2006, 02:18 PM

Dayninja, welcome to 2+2. I've played you many times and always assumed you must be one of our regular posters.

Reading this thread makes it obvious that this is a bad fold. The type of arguments being made are simply not acceptable at 13-1. It's obvious that we are nowhere near that certain about who has what.

Many posters in this thread seem not to appreciate how much weakness Hero has shown by checking the river after the turn debacle. MP2 has been invited by both opponents to bet anything he can find. CO has written us out of his playbook. He probably thinks we have AK but he doesn't expect us to overcall the river so it really doesn't matter.