qq hand

[Victor]

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i'm pretty sure BB is capping the turn with 44 or 22, which are more probable holdings than 53

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they are certainly not more probable.

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Sure they are. He isn't likely to defend with 53o, so that leaves 4 combos of 53s, right?

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how do you know he wont? 27/14 is gonna be fairly loose in the blinds bc he isnt raising as much with position. he steals less. he is looser in the blinds than you guys. regardless, you cant out and out disregard or even handicap it from how he played the hand thus far.

secondly, dont you think he puts more bets in earlier with a set?

[tolbiny]

I certainly not capping the river- this guy is not a 60/40 4+ aggression guy. He has very reasonable stats. Secondly i think you have to discount 22 and 44 somewhat as they will (and should) be c/r the flop a lot here. His hand looks much more like 66 or 35 than 44 or 22.
Raising the river or not is sb dependant. If he will put 1 bb in with almost nothing but will fold for 2 then a riase nets you zilch (except opening up yourself to a three bet).If the sb will call 2 cold with a pair of Qs then i think a raise is slightly better than a call.

[Spy Dog]

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i'm pretty sure BB is capping the turn with 44 or 22, which are more probable holdings than 53

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they are certainly not more probable.

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Sure they are. He isn't likely to defend with 53o, so that leaves 4 combos of 53s, right?

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how do you know he wont? 27/14 is gonna be fairly loose in the blinds bc he isnt raising as much with position. he steals less. he is looser in the blinds than you guys. regardless, you cant out and out disregard or even handicap it from how he played the hand thus far.

secondly, dont you think he puts more bets in earlier with a set?

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I think he might defend with 53o, but those combos need to be discounted pretty heavily because most TAGs aren't defending with that holding.

His flop position to the flop bettor is such that he might go for a greedy turn CR and trap everyone for multiple bets on the expensive street, rather than CR the flop.

[sweetjazz]

When you add in the small chance that there is an "oddball" hand like 64s or 66 and the fact that not everyone would call with 53s in the BB, then you have to put in that extra raise on the river. If you're 3-bet I think you should just call if the BB seems like he is not retarded postflop. There are many players with the stats you describe who would 3-bet an underset on this river -- I used to be one of them when I first started playing against other decent TAGs. At the 10/20, without a more specific read on the BB, it's actually close whether you should cap or not. People overplay their hands a lot.

At a higher limit game or against a villain who you know to be good, capping the river is probably a significant mistake.

[tolbiny]

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When you add in the small chance that there is an "oddball" hand like 64s or 66 and the fact that not everyone would call with 53s in the BB, then you have to put in that extra raise on the river. If you're 3-bet I think you should just call if the BB seems like he is not retarded postflop. There are many players with the stats you describe who would 3-bet an underset on this river -- I used to be one of them when I first started playing against other decent TAGs. At the 10/20, without a more specific read on the BB, it's actually close whether you should cap or not. People overplay their hands a lot.

At a higher limit game or against a villain who you know to be good, capping the river is probably a significant mistake.

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Yes, SOME tags will three bet with an underset here SOME of the time.
ALL tags will three bet ALL of the time with 35 here.
Yes people overplay their hands- However the BB is already boarderline overplaing his hand with 22 and 44 when he caps the turn.
The river cap is about a .8 bb mistake.

[cartman]

I think it is perfect so far. I raise the river and call a 3-bet but cap if SB folds and cap if SB is still involved.

[Surf]

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When you add in the small chance that there is an "oddball" hand like 64s or 66 and the fact that not everyone would call with 53s in the BB, then you have to put in that extra raise on the river. If you're 3-bet I think you should just call if the BB seems like he is not retarded postflop. There are many players with the stats you describe who would 3-bet an underset on this river -- I used to be one of them when I first started playing against other decent TAGs. At the 10/20, without a more specific read on the BB, it's actually close whether you should cap or not. People overplay their hands a lot.

At a higher limit game or against a villain who you know to be good, capping the river is probably a significant mistake.

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Yes, SOME tags will three bet with an underset here SOME of the time.
ALL tags will three bet ALL of the time with 35 here.
Yes people overplay their hands- However the BB is already boarderline overplaing his hand with 22 and 44 when he caps the turn.
The river cap is about a .8 bb mistake.

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Hey Tolbiny,

There are a few factors that should make is inclined to put more bets in on the river, rather than less.

1) Very few tags defend 53o in the BB, even to that action. 53o is a terrible hand. While he *may* defend it, 53s is the more likely candidate, of which there are only 4 combinations.

2) From villain's perspective, the Q is the only card on the board that could have helped our hand. As a result, his range for our holdings (on the turn) is going to be very heavy in 1-pair hands, QJ-AQ, KK, AA, with QQ being the only threatening hand. As a result, any set is going to cap this turn - most tags are good enough to put us on a range but not good enough to slow down with a set fearing 3 combinations of QQ.

3) The SB caller is folding if he has a draw, and will likely call 2 (since he made it this far) with a made hand, so going for the overcall does not yield much benefit.

If we get 3bet, I'm calling, since at that point 22 and 44 would definitely be overplaying and I'd need a read to cap. When SB bets the river his hand range is still pretty comfortably 22/44/66/53s.

Surf

[Trix]

I usually raise the flop because I think people call or 3-bet too many hands.
If the 3 people behind you played fairly well after the flop, then I guess calling may be better.
One bet on the river.

[tolbiny]

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When you add in the small chance that there is an "oddball" hand like 64s or 66 and the fact that not everyone would call with 53s in the BB, then you have to put in that extra raise on the river. If you're 3-bet I think you should just call if the BB seems like he is not retarded postflop. There are many players with the stats you describe who would 3-bet an underset on this river -- I used to be one of them when I first started playing against other decent TAGs. At the 10/20, without a more specific read on the BB, it's actually close whether you should cap or not. People overplay their hands a lot.

At a higher limit game or against a villain who you know to be good, capping the river is probably a significant mistake.

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Yes, SOME tags will three bet with an underset here SOME of the time.
ALL tags will three bet ALL of the time with 35 here.
Yes people overplay their hands- However the BB is already boarderline overplaing his hand with 22 and 44 when he caps the turn.
The river cap is about a .8 bb mistake.

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Hey Tolbiny,

There are a few factors that should make is inclined to put more bets in on the river, rather than less.

1) Very few tags defend 53o in the BB, even to that action. 53o is a terrible hand. While he *may* defend it, 53s is the more likely candidate, of which there are only 4 combinations.

2) From villain's perspective, the Q is the only card on the board that could have helped our hand. As a result, his range for our holdings (on the turn) is going to be very heavy in 1-pair hands, QJ-AQ, KK, AA, with QQ being the only threatening hand. As a result, any set is going to cap this turn - most tags are good enough to put us on a range but not good enough to slow down with a set fearing 3 combinations of QQ.

3) The SB caller is folding if he has a draw, and will likely call 2 (since he made it this far) with a made hand, so going for the overcall does not yield much benefit.

If we get 3bet, I'm calling, since at that point 22 and 44 would definitely be overplaying and I'd need a read to cap. When SB bets the river his hand range is still pretty comfortably 22/44/66/53s.

Surf

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Things that should make the BB pause before capping the turn. Hero sraised preflop and then smoothcalled the flop in PERFECT position to face the field with 2 cold- and then three bet the turn. Anyone who has the slightest clue in poker whould know that this screams MONSTER!!!! If villan is capping the turn with 22 or 44 i think he is actually already overplaying his hand at this point.
As for the SB- players with his stats will often throw in 1 bet on the river with a ubsted A high draw. The pots enourmous and they are habitually addicted to the call button.

"1) Very few tags defend 53o in the BB, even to that action. 53o is a terrible hand. While he *may* defend it, 53s is the more likely candidate, of which there are only 4 combinations."

I rarely bother guessing at hand ranges from a BB defense in multiway pots- some people will play any two- i pay far far more attention to the fact that he really really likes his hand, even after the hero has made it clear that he really really likes his hand.
Also if villan has 22 and 44- then he still has to be afraid of hero having 44, 66, QQ, again meaning he has to way overplay his hand to get to this point.

[Victor]

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One bet on the river.

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