Folding flopped wrap 3-way on rainbow board?

[sqwisssssss]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it likely that someone has TK because high wrap hands is a type of hand a lot of people play. TK appears often, and there is a lot of action from two different players. The only things to have on this flop are a straight draw or a set. So I find TK likely.

Twodimes show I have about 0.25 EV on money being put in here if another player has TK, and first player has AA. If SB has AA and the other player has a set I still only have 0.25 EV. So really, no matter what they have, I have bad equity in this spot.

I can't believe you guys are giving me so much [censored] because you think this hand is 100 % straightforward and you always shove any draw because it's cap! Let's play worse poker because we're shortstacked.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, we are not giving you any crap......dont take it that way.

the point is that you called the raise pre flop. obviously, you'd love to flop the nuts and you hand has a lot of potential to flop the nuts........but it flopped the secondary option and thats a big draw with a pair with back door flush draw potential and your getting multiway action. the turn could be a jack giving you trips and the best hand. you might make 2 pair giving you the best hand as well.

what was it exactly you were looking for? would you rather stack off heads up? i'm not trying to be a smart ass. i'm just asking.

i go with this spot all day in a capped game if i have your hand. i'm totally in love with this hand getting multi action espeacially. peoples stack off requirements go down as well in capped game. i been in a lot of these spots and found i had the only draw to the nuts. true, you might be right about sharing the k 10 but it doesnt happen enough to make this situation unprofitable.

i think looking at this situation your way is splitting a hair too many times. good poker is just educated "gambling". you have a great spot to gamble here. now go on and get your chips in there.

i'm not trying to lecture you robbles. your a thinking player obviously and you dont need lecturing. i just believe if someone is going to give you reasons, then i try to explain my reasoning. i'm not right all the time......no one is.......but i think this spot is good in a capped game......and i'm kind of a nit.

i understand your reasoning though. unreason it and shove your chips in the middle. wash rinse repeat and go to the next hand.

[roggles]

Yes, I would much rather stack off here against just the SB. I was pretty sure he was going to pot bet the flop no matter what.

I still don't think anyone in here has even remotely attempted to justify shoving here in terms of this actually making me money (on average). Yes, this is an awesome flop for my hand, I just don't think it's that good in this spot.

And BTW, in my unedited version of that post I was only upset with chucky for telling me to stop playing omaha. I think the rest of you are just wrong [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[sqwisssssss]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I would much rather stack off here against just the SB. I was pretty sure he was going to pot bet the flop no matter what.

I still don't think anyone in here has even remotely attempted to justify shoving here in terms of this actually making me money (on average). Yes, this is an awesome flop for my hand, I just don't think it's that good in this spot.

And BTW, in my unedited version of that post I was only upset with chucky for telling me to stop playing omaha. I think the rest of you are just wrong [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

but thats not fair roggles......to say we are just flat out wrong.........you dont know for a fact that you share the nut straight draw.

if we knew for a fact......then it would be different. the only thing we know for an ABSOLUTE FACT is that you are not always sharing the nut straight draw in this spot.

if you argue against that point......then you must be psychic or stubborn.

which one is it?

[wazz]

No, you're wrong.

[chucky]

I was not aiming to be personal in my critique.

Two things. First, this is a cap game. You cant lose more than 40 dollars. Because of that I believe that players will call lighter against marked aces. BB may have kt, but may also have q6 or qj or qqxx with the knowledge that once SB bets there is no fold equity from raising. Secondly, even if your equity is only 25%, you are getting 4 to 1 on the call.

Regarding my telling you to stop playing omaha. That was a sarcastic remark because I believe that folding when one gets a very favorable flop because of fear can be counterproductive in playing winning poker. Everyone occasionally fold middle set, and most people occasionally fold 2nd nut flush, but folding big draws because it might be to a split pot being overly pessimistic.

[FireStorm]

You say that the only hands you can conceivably be facing on this type of board would be sets and straight draws. When you play KTJ9 preflop, would it be fair to say that the above applies to almost all flops that give you a draw but not a complete hand? With this reasoning it would seem that As-Qs-8d would be the only flop you'd be looking to continue on.

[gordo16]

It makes me borderline angry, actually, that you folded here. Your reasoning that the "only hands" that the other players could have in this spot is a set or wrap draw is absurd given the limit you are playing. Actually, scratch that, it's an absurd assumption for any level. I dream of flop like this... folding here seems somehow.... morally wrong?

[Flip-Flop]

Man WTF [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[garcia1000]

OH LOOKS

VS TOP SET AND KT

LOL DONKAMENTS

pokenum -o js ks th 9c - kh tc 2d 3s - qh qd 2s 3c -- jd qc 6s
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing 6s Qc Jd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Js 9c Th 164 24.62 333 50.00 169 25.38 0.373
3s Tc 2d Kh 0 0.00 482 72.37 184 27.63 0.138
2s 3c Qd Qh 318 47.75 333 50.00 15 2.25 0.489

[OrrLives]

You are getting 3 to 1 on the flop, so you will need to have 25% equity to call. You will be priced in on the turn unless the board pairs Q or 6 so let's just go with the 25% equity needed.

OP, here is why everyone said call...


At worst, you will be up against QQXX and a huge wrap like AKT9. Here you have ~17% equity. Fold in this situation.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Js 9c Th 38 5.71 480 72.07 148 22.22 0.168 <---
Qd 8d Qh 9h 377 56.61 289 43.39 0 0.00 0.566
Tc Ad Kd 9d 103 15.47 415 62.31 148 22.22 0.266


Against QQXX and KTXX, you have ~20-35% equity depending on the side cards. If your opponents could have QQXX and KTXX with bad side cards, you should call.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Js 9c Th 38 5.71 397 59.61 231 34.68 0.229 <---
Qd 8d Qh 9h 355 53.30 307 46.10 4 0.60 0.535
Tc 7c Kd 9d 42 6.31 393 59.01 231 34.68 0.235


cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Js 9c Th 149 22.37 370 55.56 147 22.07 0.334 <---
8c Qd Qh 3h 309 46.40 357 53.60 0 0.00 0.464
Tc 4c Kd 5d 61 9.16 458 68.77 147 22.07 0.202


Against QJXX and KTXX with bad side cards, you are a favorite,
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Js 9c Th 175 26.28 320 48.05 171 25.68 0.391 <--
8c Qd Jh 3h 239 35.89 427 64.11 0 0.00 0.359
Tc 4c Kd 5d 81 12.16 414 62.16 171 25.68 0.250