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#2
11-05-2006, 10:26 AM
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Re: rivered 2pair facing overbet FTP 25-50
from the background info you gave and my observations of night, I think he has the ability to push a busted flush draw here as many times as he pushes a set. I think your two pair is good here more often then not so call.
Results? 
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#3
11-05-2006, 05:02 PM
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Re: rivered 2pair facing overbet FTP 25-50
arbian's bluff percentage here is so close to zero, in my experience, and i dont really like ur hand much in terms of picking off value. when the river comes a card like this, and the villain still bets, i tend to give him more credit (if he is good) because he wont think a bluff looks credible (because his vbet range gets much smaller on a river like this).
-Jason
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#4
11-05-2006, 05:29 PM
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Re: rivered 2pair facing overbet FTP 25-50
[ QUOTE ]
arbian's bluff percentage here is so close to zero, in my experience, and i dont really like ur hand much in terms of picking off value. when the river comes a card like this, and the villain still bets, i tend to give him more credit (if he is good) because he wont think a bluff looks credible (because his vbet range gets much smaller on a river like this). -Jason [/ QUOTE ] strass u got a hand range for arbian? i guess just set? do u consider a10/910 possibilites? i kinda figured, considering the hand breakdown, he might just think this was a credible bluff card. its sick a sick hand IMO ,so im just wondering why u dont think its close at all
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#5
11-05-2006, 05:38 PM
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Re: rivered 2pair facing overbet FTP 25-50
I definitely think AT or T9 is possible. Set also works. Id be surprised to see most 2 pair hands. I think he will also bluff occasionally or value bet a worse hand (even rarer), but not enough to call.
FWIW, I think he is a very good player and I do not like to play him. But from everything ive seen from him, he tends to show up with the goods in a spot like this.
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#6
11-05-2006, 08:22 PM
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Re: rivered 2pair facing overbet FTP 25-50
can you please explain to me why i am wrong in my thinking here?
My assumption from villan's perspective is that hero could have a range of hands. Most of which are not strong enough to call any type of river bet, but some of which might be strong enough to call an all in. p.s. regarding capslock; was not my intention to begin typing this way, but the only way to unstuck it is to reboot my laptop
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#7
11-05-2006, 08:41 PM
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Re: rivered 2pair facing overbet FTP 25-50
i understand your thinkin and its perfectly reasonable. it just goes both ways, and i think he might be exploiting that type of logic. like donkey said in first few replies - u culd flip a coin here vs a good player
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#8
11-05-2006, 08:47 PM
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Re: rivered 2pair facing overbet FTP 25-50
The only way you can truthfully justify a call is by convincing yourself that villan knows that hero cant have better then 2 pair in his range and put a lot of pressure by knowing that he cant call an over bet with that holding.
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#9
11-05-2006, 08:52 PM
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Re: rivered 2pair facing overbet FTP 25-50
but why risk so much to win so little.
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