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#11
06-22-2006, 05:42 PM
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Re: Overpair turn puke
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what river cards would turn the call-down into a check fold? Any? [/ QUOTE ] I think if he bets any river card we are in trouble. I am really hoping he has exactly TT or 99 and I doubt he is betting those. I also don't think he was sophisticated enough to try and bluff me on the turn after I 3-bet PF.... so a two-barrel job seems unlikely IMO. FWIW, I called the turn, the river was the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I checked and he bet..... [/ QUOTE ] what did that river card really change? i had planned on donking alot of rivers; honestly i would probably just bet/fold. you seem to have a read to the contrary, though. you think he would not fire the final barrel with a worse hand. well, the hand that makes the most sense would be a busted spade or some other draw that is looking at the size of the pot and realizing the only way to win is bet, especially if he feels like you will fold. almost 10BB in the pot i'm going to make a loose call here and expect to see an oddly played draw or overplayed PP once in ten times. 
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#12
06-22-2006, 05:53 PM
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Re: Overpair turn puke
OK, so he didn't cap PF. There is another player, so we can strongly discredit AA and KK. If he smooth calls there, more power to him, but I cap with UTG in the pot (and I'm sure all of you do as well.)
Him calling the flop could mean any number of things. If he thinks you have AK/AQ, he could wait to raise the turn with 99 or TT, assuming those cards don't fall. He could also have a flush draw, and may be trying to push you off the best hand, since UTG finally called it quits. On the other hand, he may have AA, and wasn't scared about an over coming, and decided to slowplay. He may have junk and think you're full of [censored] as well. For all these reasons, I'm calling here. I call the raise, and I probably donk another safe river. If he raises again, I'd probably fold. Given that the river was a Q, then I C/C and get ready to make a note on him. One thing that we've neglected is that he has 88 and flopped a set, and is slowplaying as well. I wouldn't be totally surprised to see that happen, by the way.
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#13
06-22-2006, 07:32 PM
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Re: Overpair turn puke
[ QUOTE ]
One thing that we've neglected is that he has 88 and flopped a set, and is slowplaying as well. [/ QUOTE ] That was certainly in the range of hands I had him on... hence my puke since I could not come up with much in his range that I was beating... but I called down anyway because we are not supposed to fold overpairs or something like that. Basically, I want someone to tell me that it's OK to fold here. Because I had "that feeling" but there is always a 2+2 voice in the back of my head telling me "no".
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#16
06-22-2006, 08:28 PM
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Re: Overpair turn puke
[ QUOTE ]
the hand that makes the most sense would be a busted spade or some other draw that is looking at the size of the pot and realizing the only way to win is bet [/ QUOTE ] this doesn't sound right. i meant in terms of hands we beat. not in terms of his full range. honestly i think the turn raise is a made hand like, almost always. i still don't think i fully explained myself, but regardless, we have enough here to call.
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