Pop quiz: UTG shoves blind, you call with... ?? - Page 2

FineVol · #11 03-28-2007, 11:14 AM

any pair, Q high

Small Fry · #12 03-28-2007, 01:54 PM

Interesting responses. Can somebody help me out a little and explain why one might be willing to call with J7s or Q5s? Is it just do to the fact that your a slight favorite, like 52% vs, 48% over a random hand? If so I assume you would you always call a blind all in bet with these hands (not fearing action behind you)? (since he didn't look it makes no difference that he's drunk)

LouisCyphre · #13 03-28-2007, 07:37 PM

Yes,being only a very slight favorite justifies calling here with what might seem like rag hands. If somebody offers you to flip a fair coin and offers to pay 101$ for heads while getting only paid 100$ for tails you take him up on that offer. Your edge is small but you expect to win on average. The same concept applies here only that instead of an extra 1$ on a 50% chance, you get an extra 1% on an even money bet (ignoring the rake, extra blind money and the possibility someone behind you wakes up with a big hand and decides to join the party).

Small Fry · #14 03-28-2007, 08:11 PM

Thanks for the reply Louis. But it brings up another question. I'm sure you can find a better spot to get your money in so why not wait?

If this is going to be your best shot, like flipping the coin, if the best you can get is 101:100 then, sure hop all over it. But if there's another guy willing to give you 102 why settle for the 101?

Paul2432 · #15 03-28-2007, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the reply Louis. But it brings up another question. I'm sure you can find a better spot to get your money in so why not wait?

If this is going to be your best shot, like flipping the coin, if the best you can get is 101:100 then, sure hop all over it. But if there's another guy willing to give you 102 why settle for the 101?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can do both. Implicit in these discussions is that you have enough money to rebuy if you lose.

Paul

LouisCyphre · #16 03-28-2007, 11:16 PM

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But if there's another guy willing to give you 102 why settle for the 101?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not take both?
Let's assume this drunk guy announced this will be his last hand and he will go all-in blindly. Any hand that has more than 50% equity against a random hand is good enough to call here.
It gets more complicated if he is willing to do it one more than once if it does not get called. Now you have to factor in the probability that you get better odds on another hand before someone else picks up a hand with which he will look up the drunk gambler and wins. It gets even more complicated if the gambler is willing to reload. I can't give you any exact win percentage you need to call under these circumstances but you are right that you should probably wait for a better spot than a coin flip situation.

Zele · #17 03-29-2007, 01:08 AM

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Let's assume this drunk guy announced this will be his last hand and he will go all-in blindly. Any hand that has more than 50% equity against a random hand is good enough to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Less than 50% because of the chance he was lying. That would be a clever trick - say you're going to push ATC next hand, then only do it with AA-JJ or something, and play the rest of your hands normally.

Disclaimer: Only a clever trick was this is a unilateral boast and not a deal you've made with someone.

igetjokes · #18 03-29-2007, 03:28 AM

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Less than 50% because of the chance he was lying. That would be a clever trick - say you're going to push ATC next hand, then only do it with AA-JJ or something, and play the rest of your hands normally.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread original post: UTG shoves stack forward BEFORE cards are dealt. It IS possible he has AA-JJ, but the bet is made before he has seen his hand.

Small Fry · #19 03-29-2007, 01:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the reply Louis. But it brings up another question. I'm sure you can find a better spot to get your money in so why not wait?

If this is going to be your best shot, like flipping the coin, if the best you can get is 101:100 then, sure hop all over it. But if there's another guy willing to give you 102 why settle for the 101?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can do both. Implicit in these discussions is that you have enough money to rebuy if you lose.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point Paul.

So, any time we have a hand thats a favorite over a random hand we make the call (based on the OP's premise of us closing the action since he states the blinds will fold)So if we want to push it we obviously call with any A, K or Q,(Q2s is really pushing your edge) but then all the way down to J6s, T7s, 98s and nonsuited any A or K, down to Q7, J8 and T9.

Dex · #20 03-29-2007, 03:26 PM

The hands that have at least 50% equity vs. a random hand are...

22+,A2o+,K2o+,Q5o+,J8o+,T9o,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J6s+,T7 s+,98s

...so, you should call with those. However, you can call with a few more hands because of the blind money. Assuming it's $1/$2 blinds, you're risking $100 to win $103, so you only need 100/203 (or 49.261%) equity. You can therefore also call with J5s, T8o, and J7o, which have at least 49.261% equity vs. a random hand.

In practice, I wouldn't call with nearly so many hands because the blinds haven't acted yet... but if you knew for a fact that they would fold, then you should call with all the hands listed.