CBB: Introducing the Fading Kentucky at Home System

[CieloAzor]

From the stats given, it looks like riding Kentucky on the road is even better than fading them at home.

[bills217]

As I said, the overall ATS numbers are greatly influenced by the '03 and '04 seasons, where Kentucky had a dominant team that was good against the spread and exceeded expectations regardless of where they played. The important thing to note is that they are 28 games or whatever worse at home than on the road, which, along with legitimate reasons as to why this is happening, to me indicates a fundamental inefficiency in the way home-court advantage is applied to Kentucky games.

Riding them on the road would not seem to be a horrible policy given recent history. However, I think fading them at home is better because Kentucky is very public home or away.

[MicroBob]

I don't really know about the O/U because 121 is REALLY freaking low and I just don't know if Miami is going to be THAT deliberate throughout.

I would expect a game in the 60's.
Even something like 65-57 would STILL make the over.

Miami doesn't play Princeton-style or anything like that.
Feels weird to be recommending the underdog but also leaning towards the over. But that number is really low.

Also, I don't know any of the players on Miami anymore so I'm really kind of just guessing.
Been awhile since I was associated with Miami and was regularly watching them.

But the coach is still the same and he's pretty old-school and just looking at their scores it doesn't look likely that he's changed much.

[MicroBob]

Also - looks like the spread is moving on Pinny right now.

+13.5, -105

[Rick305]

[ QUOTE ]
Also - looks like the spread is moving on Pinny right now.

+13.5, -105

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey thanks [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

got in at -106

[MicroBob]

starting to bounce back a little more.
Now -13.5, -110.


Finally some action on the more 'sensical' side imo.
Added a little bit more on my alma-mater for this one.

Still can get O121, -107 which I'm still very tempted to do.

[Donk4Life]

Fading KY at home, I think it would be wise to wait out the line. Most tourists are going to back Kentucky at the last minute, don't you think?

[Rick305]

[ QUOTE ]
Fading KY at home, I think it would be wise to wait out the line. Most tourists are going to back Kentucky at the last minute, don't you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, now the lines at 13 -105

[Rick305]

Way to go Miami [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Too bad they couldn't pull it out at the end

[CieloAzor]

Thanks for bringing this game to my attention. I don't think I'll be following the system very often but I got a modest bet in on tonight's game.