100 rebuy bubble hand

[grafyx]

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Though I think the turn will likely go check/check, I like a check raise all in if he bets. I'm check/calling almost all rivers except if I hit.

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Why do you like a crai? The obvious draw on the flop just completed. Do you think a crai will fold out marginal better hands like AT? Assuming he will fold those to a cr, do you think he is betting these often on the turn. I would expect a check behind a fair amount of time with something marginal that is beating us.

[registrar]

I think if we bet the turn, it's a push, but I'm too hungover to give any decent rationale. Checking is fine too - push if he bets. Don't call much if anything on a bricked river.

[Cablelessray]

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I think if we bet the turn, it's a push, but I'm too hungover to give any decent rationale. Checking is fine too - push if he bets. Don't call much if anything on a bricked river.

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i agree with the bold part [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TheFoxNL]

lol @cable [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

i agree also either bet all in on turn
or check raise all in
if youre not already ahead then you still have
about 14 outs (2kings 3 tens 9 spades) and if he only has Arag then another 3 queens are outs aswell giving us 17 outs
giving us around 3-1 chance of hitting the river if we need to improve

[mic_check12]

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Leading turn is all kinds of bad, you rarely fold out better hands, you fold out pretty much all worse hands, and if your hand is ahead, your opponent usually has like 2 outs. If you lead and you get raised, you're pretty much ALWAYS behind, I don't really feel like looking @ the math to see if you're committed to call a shove, but when your bet gets action, you're going to be getting your money in behind. However, if you check and he bets, you will very often have close to the right direct pot odds to c/c and draw to a T/spade.

Leading turn is really bad, unless you have some sick metagame stuff you are working into your game.

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MikeJ owned this thread. My knee jerk reaction was to shove but when you read this everything is correct IMO...

[Larude]

The problem in this hand his that it's very unlikely we are ahead. He could have AK, JJ, pocket fives, KJs-KQs, KK, AA after his call on the turn; QQ would have raised on the turn I think to settle things out. AQ is possible though it is a littlebit golddigging. I don't see him laying down any of these hands after a check-raise all-in except for maybe AQ and QQ which was very unlikely in the first place.

Pokerstove:
Hand 0: 36.080% { KsQs }
Hand 1: 63.920% { JJ+, 55, AQs+, KJs+, AQo+ }

All in all shoving would be very very bad, you could try a blockbet of 10.000 but there is a very big chance he will raise that up. I would check and fold if you can't get enough odds.

[stokken]

I really like MikeJ`s reasoning. One could possibly argue in favour of getting it all in on turn given a gigabet point of view. If one believes the possibilities and posessed capabilities in a doubled stack at this point justifies the risk of crippling.

Stokken

[BKiCe]

this looks like an absolutely perfect spot for a check-raise shove... stack sizes, bubble of big tourney, lots of outs even if you get called, and hey if he checks behind then you see the river for free.

[IWEARGOGGLES]

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this looks like an absolutely perfect spot for a check-raise shove... stack sizes, bubble of big tourney, lots of outs even if you get called, and hey if he checks behind then you see the river for free.

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What the hell is going to fold to a crai?

[roo400]

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this looks like an absolutely perfect spot for a check-raise shove... stack sizes, bubble of big tourney, lots of outs even if you get called, and hey if he checks behind then you see the river for free.

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What the hell is going to fold to a crai?

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He doesn't want him to fold. He hopes that worst hands will commit themselves to the pot. I was at the table when this hand happened (I think) so I know the results, but this looks like a c/c to me. You are not afraid of letting a free card as almost every card in the deck helps you.

So, we are either beat and need to draw one of our 12 outs or we are ahead. If we bet, all worst hands will probably fold and all better hands will call/push. That's why I would c/c this.