What are the odds?

[pococurante]

Yeah there are the usual funny replies, but isn't anyone going to do the math? I mean if you can't get someone to help with this here, where are you supposed to go?

So you've won 89 out of 512 coinflips (let's call it 50/50 for simplicity's sake).

The expected winrate is 50%, but your winrate is 17.38%. To calculate the standard deviation:

SQRT{(512*0.5*(1-0.5)}
SQRT(256*0.5)
SQRT(128)
standard deviation = 11.314

There is a 68.2% chance you'll be within one standard deviation of the expected value of 256... in other words, you're about 68% to be in the range of 245-267.

There's a 95.4% chance you'll be within two deviations (233-279).

But somehow, you are nearly 15 standard deviations away from the expected value. The odds of this are astronomical. As you can see, as you get farther from the expected value, the chance of that event occurring becomes more unlikely at a quickly increasing rate.

I couldn't even find the numbers for 13 standard deviations. The odds of being more than 7 deviations away (under 177 coinflip wins) are 1 in 3.86 billion. The odds of you losing over 80% of your coinflips for such an extended period of time are literally unbelievable.

It's far, far more unlikely than things that are considered to be impossible. The spontaneous explosion of the planet Earth is more likely than losing that many coinflips.

In conclusion: 99.99% chance you pulled those coinflip numbers out of your ass, 0.01% chance that poker is rigged.

[tame_deuces]

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I've got other much more improbable records, but believe me, you wouldn't believe me!
Gubus

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vs

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It's far, far more unlikely than things that are considered to be impossible. The spontaneous explosion of the planet Earth is more likely than losing that many coinflips.


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This has exciting implications!

[btmagnetw]

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In conclusion: 99.99% chance you pulled those coinflip numbers out of your ass, 0.01% chance that poker is rigged.

[/ QUOTE ]you underestimate the probaiblity that he is pulling [censored] out of his ass

[Gubus]

Well....I have been called an azhole (more than once) in my life. Maybe that's it.
OK, am I 100% accurate? I'm sure not. There've been a good many times I'd loose to 2 players on the same hand (my QQ vs AJ + KQ, table AKXXX). Is that one loss? Probably shouldn't have, but I marked it as two. Or if one or both bet out so large pre-flop to be effectively pot commited to all in. Not perfectly accurate, but there haven't been enough of those times to massively skew the numbers. I didn't go into this as a scientific statistical research project. More of a casual analysis of how to improve my game. Since I'm obviously not getting rich at it, (there...I leave myself open to attack by you guys...LOL) I'm trying to identify my wrong decisions & correct them.
Here's something...not enough detail for probability numbers, but...I flop a set, push (or call) all-in before the turn, 21 wins, 49 losses.
More jokes please, I could use the cheering up...
G

[apefish]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah there are the usual funny replies, but isn't anyone going to do the math? I mean if you can't get someone to help with this here, where are you supposed to go?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pecan + Walnut + Almond = the nuts.

[obiedman]

hi

[ebepse]

the odds are somewhere around ~25

also, this may help you

poker hand rankings- from best to worst
1. royal flush (the cards 10 to Ace all the same suit)
2. straight flush (any 5 cards in order that are the same suit)
3. four of a kind (four cards with the same number/letter)
4. full house (three of a kind and a pair)
5. flush (five cards that are the same suit)
6. straight (five cards in order)
7. three of a kind (three cards with the same number/letter)
8. two pair (two different pairs)
9. one pair (two cards with the same number/letter)
10. high card (a hand wiht no pairs or flushes or anything, just judged by its highest card. ace is the highest, two is the worst.)

[BowToYourSensei]

before opening the thread i guessed 50/50.

i stand by my guess

[ICMoney]

I would guess 27.82%.

(you might want to check out PokerEV Software)

[ICMoney]

Oh yeah: