Odds of going busto?

[machine]

well assume 5%

[kyleb]

close to 90%

[machine]

[ QUOTE ]
close to 90%

[/ QUOTE ]

of going bust?

[centris]

[ QUOTE ]
well usually between -120 and +200, chance i will win each bet on average is probably about 50%. Assuming i bet 2700 units per year but i dont make 2700 bets, bets are 1-3 units so between 2700 and 900 bets per year. say we average at 2 units thats 1800 bets a year. So say yearly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming you are betting 1800 bets per year each one 2% of your bankroll, these bets are uniformly distributed between -120 and 200, and there is a 50% chance that each bet is successful there is a under .001% chance you will fall under 5% of your original roll in a year. But I am sure that you are not finding 1800 bets per year that are uniformly distributed between -120 and 200 that win 50% of the time.

[machine]

sorry if its 2 units thats 1350 bets per year, after 40% of the year its running at just over 50% win ratio. if it helps crock mentioned there is only a 0.1% chance that he actually has a -roi long term.

[bugstud]

try 1% instead of 2%

[machine]

odds to high of busto with 2%, i know its more risky but i was intending to drop to 1% next year i was just wondering what the odds are of surviving this year or remaining 3.5 months

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
well assume 5%

[/ QUOTE ]

Use a kelly or 1/2 kelly system and you will never go broke.

1/2 kelly roughly:
5% edge on you at 100 (versus -110 true line) = 2.5% of bankroll

5% edge on you at -150 (versus -170 true line) = 3.7% of bankroll

5% edge on you at +162 (versus +150 true line) = 1.5% of bankroll

[Mediocre_Player]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well assume 5%

[/ QUOTE ]

Use a kelly or 1/2 kelly system and you will never go broke.

1/2 kelly roughly:
5% edge on you at 100 (versus -110 true line) = 2.5% of bankroll

5% edge on you at -150 (versus -170 true line) = 3.7% of bankroll

5% edge on you at +162 (versus +150 true line) = 1.5% of bankroll

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have a modified Kelly for having simultaneous bets? I have my own bastardized way but haven't seen anything written out there

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
well its crocks plays if that helps

[/ QUOTE ]

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