#11
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
If you fold, BB calls 100% right ?
If he wins, the new BB (UTG) has to call a push 100% of the time right ? Then you get your chance to double. So well, you're not strictly guaranted the money but have a better shot that the probable 55-65% to win you get here when calling, imo. |
#12
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
Seems like it has to be a fold. Doubling up only puts you at 5bb, which still isn't great. For you to lose, 2 players have to win all ins and you have to lose yours.
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#13
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
My gut was to call, given that he's pushing so wide.
My luck is if I don't shortie doubles up and I go OTM. However lots of smart people say to fold so what do I know? |
#14
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
You can read harrington vol III for explanation.
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#15
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
[ QUOTE ]
Seems like it has to be a fold. Doubling up only puts you at 5bb, which still isn't great. For you to lose, 2 players have to win all ins and you have to lose yours. [/ QUOTE ] DD I do think having 5BB in this context is a huge advantage because is almost certainly locking the money and a huge lead vs third. PIPB might not push over one of the other villains just to keep the bubble alive. |
#16
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
[ QUOTE ]
You can read harrington vol III for explanation. [/ QUOTE ] I did not notice there is a section on high buy ins online SNGs! BAN! |
#17
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
I might try to run some numbers later, but you are correct that doubling up pretty much locks up 3rd and leaves a very good chance at 2nd, and a small chance at 1st. However, the difference between 4th and 3rd is huge, while the difference between 2nd and 3rd is negligible. ATo isn't even a 2-1 fav against NE2 cards, if he is pushing that wide. I'd rather take my (several) chances of the other 2 busting/doubling up on my BB.
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#18
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
I just run the numbers, if PIPB pushes 100% ATo gives 0.4$ so basically calling or folding is more or less equivalent.
If PIPB pushes anything better than 100% (which I doubt) is a fold. |
#19
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
I really doubt button is pushing 100%. IMO, pushing 100% from the button knowing that BB is callling with almost any hand is really bad.
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#20
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Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
[ QUOTE ]
I really doubt button is pushing 100%. IMO, pushing 100% from the button knowing that BB is callling with almost any hand is really bad. [/ QUOTE ] why should he call with any hand given opponents' stack sizes? |
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