Omaha 8/ob really interesting hand

[graarrg]

I definitely like the flop bet, but if it's a loose game and you're gonna get called by 6892, don't bother. Aces are great when combined with a low draw and the chance that an opponent might fold. Take away the last one and you're in a tough spot, esp. three way.

[chaos]

This is a bad hand. A pair of Aces is not likely to win high and your chance of flopping a set is diminished. There is no guarantee neither opponent has A2. In most positions I would fold this hand. I definitely would not raise from the BB.

Your flop play is OK.

Why are you betting the turn? You have Aces up for high and are drawing almost dead to anyone with a 6. You still have a second nut low draw.

I think your opponents either had good hands or read you as being out of line. It is less likely that you hold a 6 if you raised with a typical raising hand (AAxx, A23x, A2xx s).

[steamboatin]

I am a fish at Omaha but I believe three handed, I check/call the turn and check/call the river and fold to any raise.

I am not raising pre-flop but if I did, I would have also bet the flop.

[Phil153]

So you guys who would fold or just call preflop: do you also fold or just call with AA39? If not, could you please explain the difference, in terms of percentage equity and playability, between AA39 and AAA3. Could you also tell me if it's more likely that someone has A2 when you're holding AAA3 or AA39, and how much this would affect your equity.

Thanks.

[bodie]

odomination,
I also will play a hand like this in an unraised pot in late position. But you have to be aware (which I think you are) that it is not a strong hand unless you hit a perfect flop. For instance, recently I held K, K, K, Ar in the BB and checked. The flop was: A,A,K believe it or not.
But that's rare (although fun of course).
What worries me is you saying here that you "liked the 6 on the turn to be honest"...because this shows to me a misunderstanding of the game.
In O8 two pair, even with Aces, is a drawing hand, and I wouldn't have been happy to see the board pair with that 6. It's the wrong card for what we need.
You did the right thing to fold after the check-raise, but I disagree with your bet on the turn - in O8 you're not going to push out someone who has a nut hand, which someone very likely had here, and you *didn't* have it, so you could have saved the money on that bet.

[Scott Y.]

[ QUOTE ]
So you guys who would fold or just call preflop: do you also fold or just call with AA39? If not, could you please explain the difference, in terms of percentage equity and playability, between AA39 and AAA3. Could you also tell me if it's more likely that someone has A2 when you're holding AAA3 or AA39, and how much this would affect your equity.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

if youre worrying about A2 when you open-raise on the Button, youre playing the shorthanded game very very wrong.

[odomination]

Thank you everyone for your very thoughtful responses. After having reexamined the way that I played the hand on each street I think that the preflop raise is good as is the flop bet. I agree with everyone though that on the turn I should slow down after getting 2 callers on the flop. I guess its time for the results. I folded to the 3 bet by the sb and the button called. River came the 5H.

SB Bets
Button Calls

SB shows 8 6 J K (full house)
Button shows A 3 7 J (A3 low)

So in hindsight if the SB didnt play hands for tools then id have quartered the button but thats why this was a good game I guess. The one question that I will ask is if I do check the turn and the button checks it behind me and the river comes a K or a Q... SB checks, should I value bet. I say yes, anyone else?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
AAA3 is pure junk.

[/ QUOTE ]
timotheeeee - You really should consider the suitedness of the cards. Rainbow AAA3 (which I represent as AAA3n) is not equivalent to AAA3-suited (which I represent as AAA3s). Playing the nut flush draw in hearts is worth serious consideraton. In addition, knowing the location of three of the aces is an advantage.

[ QUOTE ]
You're hoping for the low, and it's not even for the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Partly true. Yes, Hero would like to flop the nut low or the nut low draw, and for either of those, Hero needs a deuce on the flop. But having three aces cuts down on the possibility of encountering an ace-deuce in the hand of an opponent. Normally, in this size game, ace-trey will run afoul of an ace-deuce about half the time. But with three aces in his hand, Hero, if he does make low, will usually have the winning low.

[ QUOTE ]
Your only hope for high is for your 2 aces to hold up

[/ QUOTE ]
Not at all. You forgot the nut heart flush draw, and there is a possible low straight (wheel) and a full house, trips, or two pairs. In addition, having three aces has threat value.

[ QUOTE ]
You're in the big blind with an absolutely hideous hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I strongly disagree. It's certainly not a premium starting hand, but I'd generally voluntarily see the flop with it from almost any position. (Whether I raise or not before the flop with any hand depends mainly on what I think the effect will be on my opponents). It's a hand with which you can "play poker."

Even as a rainbow hand, AAA3n is, in my humble opinion, quite playable.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop:It is true that against only 2 opponents,a button limper & a sb limper,there is probably a good chance that your A3 is the best low draw since the AAA somewhat diminishes the chance of another player having an A2.(?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ben - Yes, having three aces does diminish the chance of another player having A2XY. But you don't figure this on the basis of the number of opponents who see the flop. Rather you figure it on the basis of the number of opponents who were dealt cards (because presumably opponents who were dealt garbage might fold but anyone who was dealt cards including an ace plus a deuce is going to see the flop).

[ QUOTE ]
Turn:If nobody has a 6,this is a good turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. An opponent could have a six, or a pair of eights or a pair of tens, or a couple of clubs, (or even a 79XY for the straight, although 79XY is probably remote). When you add the possibilities all together, the six of clubs doesn't help Hero, but could help an opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have a reasonably good estimate of how often one of them will have a 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me neither. If Hero's two opponents have random cards then neither of them has a six C(42,8)/C(44,8) = 0.666. In other words, about one time out of three hero should expect one of two opponents to hold a six. (But they don't have random cards).

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz,if you also think this is a good hand for this type of mathmatical application,I would appreciate your help,as always.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bear in mind that I'm not a mathematician.

But maybe we can figure out how often Hero is likely to encounter a better low when the board is 6789T on the river. OP doesn't tell us how many players were dealt cards. Assuming nine players, including Hero, were dealt cards, then Hero's eight opponents were dealt a total of 32 cards.

Step 1: Hero can see nine cards on the river leaving 43 unseen cards, including one ace, three treys, all four deuces, and 35 other cards.
In that case, the probability no opponent was dealt the case ace is
C(42,10)/C(43,10) = 0.767. (There's never a guarantee I punched all the numbers into my calculator correctly).

Let's check the result with common sense. With ten undealt cards, the chance the case ace is one of the undealt cards is 10/43 = 0.233. Calculating the probabilities in two distinctly different ways, they add up to 1.
O.K., that's my check. (Keep in mind that I'm not a mathematician out to prove anything).

Anyhow, I think about three times out of four (0.767) when Hero holds three aces and can see five board cards on the river, and none of the board cards is the case ace, then one of Hero's eight opponents was dealt the case ace. That concludes the first step.

Step 2: Now we want to find the chance an opponent who was dealt the case ace was also dealt a deuce. There are three possibilities, A222, A22X, and A2XY, (where X and Y are not deuces).

There are four ways an opponent could be dealt A222 (because there are four deuces that could be missing from A222).
There are 6*38 = 228 ways an opponent could be dealt A22X. (six ways to get two deuces and 38 ways to get something else).
There are 4*38*37/2 = 2812 ways an opponent could have been dealt A2XY. (four ways to get one deuce and then 38*37/2 ways to get two cards not including another deuce)
That's 4+228+2812 = 3044 ways in all that an opponent could have been dealt a hand with an ace and a deuce, out of
43*42*41/6 = 12341 possible hands with the case ace an opponent could have been dealt (since we can see nine cards on the river).

So I think the probability an opponent who was dealt the case ace was also dealt a deuce is 0.767*3044/12341 = 0.189.

Thus if eight opponents were dealt cards, and if they'd all see the flop with A2XY, and then continue to the showdown, when the final board was 6789T, or various other boards with no ace, deuce, or trey, but with enough low cards to enable low, Hero with AAA3 would run afoul of Villain with a better low only about one time out of five.

Similarly, the probability Hero with AAA3 should get tied for low is
0.767*(3*35+3*35*34/2)/12341 = 0.117 (about one time out of nine).

So all in all, when low is enabled, but there's no ace, deuce or trey on the board at the river, Hero should win outright ~0.694, get tied for low ~0.117, and lose low ~0.189. Something like that.

I'll check that application of math with a 10,000 run simulation.

Hero with AAA3 and a board of 6789T wins low 68.7%, ties low 12.3%, and loses low 19.9%. (Close enough).

Buzz

[benwood]

Buzz.Thanks for your help.Like I've said before,you're the nuts.

With that said,I respectfully disagree with your analysis about the 6 on the turn.Quote:"An opponent could have a six,or a pair of eights,or a pair of tens,or a couple of clubs,(or even a 79xy for the straight,although 79xy is probably remote).When you add the possibilities all together,the six of clubs cdoesn't help hero,but could help an opponent."

The 6 of clubs doesn't help an opponent unless he has a 6 or 2 clubs in his hand.If op has a set of 10's,8's,or if he has a straight draw,the 6 doesn't help him.But the six does help hero because it keeps an op who has a 10 or 8 in his hand from winning by making 2 pr.on the river.