AA: yummy... now let me puke ($2/$4)

[dchz]

not folding this ever, this pot is big enough to go all in, i don't really see too much up for discussion here,

i think you are over leveling them....
i really think the regular only has an over pair

[fitnessfreak]

i think that you are over analysing this hand. yes, MP could have a set and be trying to squeeze out maximum value. however, he could just as easily have an overpair TT-QQ and be making a value raise against the donk, assuming that your weak bet means that you missed the flop with AK and will fold to a relatively small raise.

i dont mind either shoving the flop or raising/open pushing the turn all in. its a bit risky to give a free card by just calling the flop, but on the other hand if MP bets the turn with an overpair he is pretty much committed, whereas a flop push by you will probably get him to fold these hands.

folding here is bad IMO.

[jlkrusty]

[ QUOTE ]
i really think the regular only has an over pair

[/ QUOTE ]

An overpair? Why in the world wouldn't this reg raise loose donk preflop if he had TT+? I just don't see that.

[ QUOTE ]
i think you are over leveling them....

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, perhaps. And, I don't want this thread to turn into a leveling joke. Stating that risk up front, I'll ask the following: to make a call or raise, wouldn't I have to be thinking on an even higher level than I am:

0th level: What my own hand is.
1st level: What my opponent has.
2nd level: What hand my opponent thinks I have.
3rd level: What my opponent thinks I think he has.

So, my thinking so far has been on 2nd level. For me to make this call/raise, I'd have to be 3rd leveling, right? Or, are you suggesting I just zero level this hand and push it?

[HP]

dude this is easy:

reraise preflop with QQ+/AK

bet 120 on flop with all hands. shut down if called and you don't have top pair+, else get all the money in

Now it's very -EV for him to call preflop with even JJ

expand preflop rerasing range as you see fit. Against this particular opponent I'd throw in JJ/TT/AQ prolly. Though I'm not a full ring player so I don't know what his opening range is from UTG+1, but you get the idea

[Zaid_Ahmed]

Raise more preflop. approx. $70. Obv, bet more on flop.

[jlkrusty]

[ QUOTE ]
Now it's very -EV for him to call preflop with even JJ

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree. If we stack off every time in the manner you're suggesting, then I think his implied set odds in this three-way pot will be +EV for him to call.

Your underlying conclusion ultimately rests on whether your premise that "it's very -EV for him to call preflop with even JJ" is true or false. Last September, I made the following calculations of what happens when you and your opponent each have a different pocket pair:

#1: 76.5726% that neither of you hit a set.*
#2: 11.1933% that villain hits a set, but you do not.*
#3: 11.1933% that you hit a set, but villain does not.*
#4: 1.0407% that you both hit a set (or better).*

Let's assume that I always get my stack in the manner you are suggesting. For simplicity, let's also assume that loose donk never puts any more money in the pot. Let's now calculate what villain's overall EV is by making the call:

It costs him $44 to make the call. You can combine situation #1 and #3 above to make three overall situations:

#1 Villian does not hit a set 87.7659% of the time and loses $44. Multiply those two numbers together and we get -$38.62.

#2 Villian hits a set and I do not 11.1933% of the time. If I stack off (and loose donk puts no more in the pot), the final pot will be $875 ($878 minus $3 rake). His equity in this pot is:

Board: 9d 7c 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.889% 08.89% 00.00% 264 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 91.111% 91.11% 00.00% 2706 0.00 { 77 }

91.111% of $875.00 is $797.22. Minus the $390 he put in the pot after I raised and his EV is +$407.22. Multiply this by the 11.1933%, and we get +$45.58.

#3 We both hit a set on the flop. This occurs 1.0407%. We'll both stack off here and again produce a $875 pot. His equity here is:

Board: 7c 2h As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.657% 95.66% 00.00% 2841 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 04.343% 04.34% 00.00% 129 0.00 { 77 }

04.343% of $875.00 is $38.00. Minus the $390 he put in the pot and his EV is -$352.00. Multiply this by the 1.0407%, and we get -$3.66.

OKAY: to get the overall, we just add all three of these calculations together:

-$38.62
+$45.58
-$3.66
======
OVERALL EV = +$3.30

There are other factors as well, so you could argue that it's close to zero EV for him to call, but I think it's hard to argue that "it's very -EV for him to call preflop even with JJ" (especially in light of the fact that loose donk is also in the hand and can help build the pot even higher).

[HP]

I would still argue it's very -EV still since you stack off only about half the time (half the time you are shutting down with AK after flop bet)

[rand]

um i agree, making a small bet to get donk to stay in the hand is not good unless your hu with him...this size bet (esp with donks call) is begging to be bluff raised--now if you wanted this then ok, but i dont think you did--i agree with lostdef, bet more and you wont be in this situation

basically though, i think its pretty close (bc i could see a good tag, esp with high aggression factor) raising this with air a good % of the time but i still fold here bc i think he has a set too often

(mpp dont need to isolate donk a call there, in MP, is pretty standard with 77 or 22, and prolly gets mixed up with 99)

[TheStandman]

[ QUOTE ]
I would still argue it's very -EV still since you stack off only about half the time (half the time you are shutting down with AK after flop bet)

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree with you, smart and very correct. His slightly +EV is completely false.. the assumption AA will never fold is wrong. The flop could also be 7 7 5 or 5 5 7 or 3s 4s 5s making easier for AA to fold.... and if you have AsAd is not even that wrong to call this push even if the opponent hit his set. So he will not always win if he hits, this EV logic is not entirely correct!

This might be a strange conclusion but push the flop. There are other good reasons to push here.... They called so heavy -EV preflop that you shouldn't fold this flop.

[Alexos]

Your flop bet is ridiculous and makes the decision 1000x more difficult. Just bet 100$ at least and fold to a reraise b/c your line is so strong I doubt MP would raise like that with anything other than a set.