Sunday Warmup bubble spot

[ryanghall]

Common sense dictates that if you want to maximize your ROI, this has to be a fold.

The post above must have some baaaad math (Edit: or more likely bad assumptions), not that I'm going to bother reading through it all.

Ryan

[ike]

ryan I hope you're joking, but to assume someone else's hard work is just wrong without reading it or anything, is just so demeaning and belittling to his work... I'd expect better from you.

ps (this is mastr)

[yellowsub]

id prb fold, mcgipp the 400$, & make some comment a/b lol donkaments.

[TheNewf]

yeah the math in that post makes no sense. As far as I can tell he's pulled the $EV values out of thin air, ignoring all bubble considerations on top of that (the entire point is that 2 people are likely to bust before his BB). Like I said on AIM pretty sure this is an easy fold.

[NoahSD]

Gotta be a fold. Really don't think it's close at all.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta be a fold. Really don't think it's close at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto

[TwistedEcho]

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta be a fold. Really don't think it's close at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I lost my stack like 3 hands before this, went from 20bb to 1bb (since he decided not to put me allin and i only had a bluff catcher)

Anyway at that point i decided i pretty much had to fold in, and pretty much folded the AK without thinking. A friend was railing on aim and didn't like it, and shaun seemed to think it was a push because he wasn't convinced we could fold in. FWIW i did cash (by one place) and busted in the BB the hand after h4h

[Galwegian]

Just curious. For all those people who think this is a clear fold, how big does hero's stack have to be before it becomes a clear push?

(BTW, my guess is that there is not too much difference between calling and folding in the given spot, and that the the correct decision is extremely sensitive to the position of the other short stacks relative to the blinds)

[Tackleberry]

If my stack would be something around 1/2 average I would push.

[ QUOTE ]
(BTW, my guess is that there is not too much difference between calling and folding in the given spot, and that the the correct decision is extremely sensitive to the position of the other short stacks relative to the blinds)

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Look at the other posts (NoahSD, Vetgirig, ...) - we´re not only looking at the shortstacks, especially the mid-stacks (slightly below average) are eager to double up and somebody (not being shortstacked) may bust with a good hand against an even better hand.

[Galwegian]

[ QUOTE ]
If my stack would be something around 1/2 average I would push.

[ QUOTE ]
(BTW, my guess is that there is not too much difference between calling and folding in the given spot, and that the the correct decision is extremely sensitive to the position of the other short stacks relative to the blinds)

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Look at the other posts (NoahSD, Vetgirig, ...) - we´re not only looking at the shortstacks, especially the mid-stacks (slightly below average) are eager to double up and somebody (not being shortstacked) may bust with a good hand against an even better hand.

[/ QUOTE ] I realise that there is more than just the shortstacks to consider. However, given that play is presumably hand by hand at this stage and that the hero only has 2 more hands before being forced in blind, I think that the overwhelmingly decisive factor here is whether or not at least two of the other short stacks will be forced in blind before he is. Surely it is optimistic to think that two medium stacks will bust out in the next 2 hands. If all the other shorter stacks are in later position, he has to call here as it is very unlikely that he will get a better hand in the next two. If he was in late position then it would clearly be a fold, but in ep I think its close