Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in

[empyrium]

care to give a normal answer? i really want to know why its such a insta fold.
just how can this be a fold against ATC? we dominate any A and any K badly, we are like 65:35 against random lifecards and we have a flip against a pp.

[RexWoo]

empyrium : because this is the bubble and you need a much much better hand than usual to call.

* you are currently in good positino
* if you win you are in better position but not garanteed the win
* if you loose you get nothing

So you really need much much more than a 50/50 to call.

[Gaborsisters]

Harrington Vol. III, workbook, has several hands covering bubble play in one table tourneys. The consensus of these hands is you need to be very strong, AA or KK only. However he does have one hand where hero is also short-stacked and he recommends JJ-AA and AK suited. I am folding here.

This is predicated on villain pushing any pair, any Ace, KJ or better,suited or unsuited and QJ or bettter suited or unsuited.

Eva

[empyrium]

hm ok, looks like i found a leak here, thanks for the explanations

[Kibby]

I'm calling this normally but if the villain is nitty, I can fold. Here's the rational.

1) If he's pushing >30% of his hands, this is a call based strickly on ICM with sklansky hand ranks. (min edge 0.2)
2) Your hand should stack up against his pushing range better than the 30% of the sklansky range because his range will be weighted to As and Ks.
3) If you win, you're in super pwning territory. You have two ATC pushes coming up after showing a big hand. This will lead to tighter ranges because of that and the new shortie you just created.
4) You have the opportunity to enter ITM with a dominating stack with BBs that are greater than 1/10th the closest stack size. This allows for easy pushes ITM.

All of these factors make this a call I make all day.

[Chipchucker5]

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Instacall...unless the game is a total zoo.

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chip,

could youy explain your reasoning for going against SNG Wiz here??

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If the CLer is playing properly, he's going to be owning the bubble and picking up pretty much every pot uncontested (obviously since people want to fold AK). If we look several hands down the road, stacks will likely be something like this: UTG 2k, Button 8k, SB 1k, Hero 2k and this is assuming shorty hasn't doubled up. Instead of getting destroyed like this and rolling the dice for 2nd, 3rd & 4th, we should call with the AK, win a large portion of the time, become the chip leader and now we wreck the bubble.

[masterblaker]

I don't really have anything to bring to the table in this discussion, but this is very eye opening for me. I normally insta-call in these situations, although I have never ran the ICM calc on it. I had assumed this was an easy call.

Please keep this discussion going, as I find it extremely interesting.

[empyrium]

exactly what chipchucker said...looks like its no bad play after all.
you are definitely way more often ahead than behind if you call and you dont play for a 3rd or 2nd place but to own the bubble and get 1st.

[KoreanBuffet]

Can someone tell me what the hard numbers are on this call...my free trials on sngpt and wiz ran out a couple weeks ago and i am too much of a nit to purchase right now. I just want to know what the -% is and how -$EV it is just to see if we are only giving up a little to potentially pwn teh bubble.

[ger664]

This is the second AK call in the BB on the bubble post in 2 days. People should calculate the ICM themselves rather then just posting and looking to see if they made a correct fold/call.

If you do not have SNGPT or SNGWIZ do it by hand with pokerstove/excel & ICM calculator.

I also think that doing it by hand is better if you do not really understand ICM rather then just buying the tools and saying "well Program says its a call so call". Once you have it figuerd then play with stacks and call/ranges and other things to get a much better understanding.