($27) Shortstacked on bubble, big stack in BB, trash hand

[DMACM]

I would wait. You have no fold equity. Shoving now would be positive EV but shoving from the Button or Utg would probalby be more positive EV if you have an Ace or something better than 82s.

[DMACM]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this because I think I can find a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

bingo

[taipan168]

I agree that the hand in a vacuum looks like a fold, but I guess the question that I have here is whether there are other considerations to take into account other than the expected value for this hand, namely:

- The fact that we will pretty much need to open push the next hand that's folded to us
- The fact that we likely have two live cards here and if we double up we have quite a bit more FE
- The fact that ICM tends to overvalue short stacks on the bubble (so the EV of folding is probably somewhat overstated).

[Scotty_12]

Us pushing last 3 + lag + crap hand + little FE = fold in my books.

[Josem]

To those who are commenting on this hand: taking into account everything we know here, what do you think the villain's calling range is?

This is the real and substantial question at issue here.

[BicVicTheQuick]

@Josem
I think this was answered before: 75%
This range is appropiate as hero pushed him around the last 3 times and he is far too loose. I don't have Pokerstove around but I suppose that 82s is -EV against this range.

[The Venetian]

Well, it should be 32+. Whether it is or not is up to OP.

[marimba man]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, it should be 32+. Whether it is or not is up to OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling w/ ATC from the BB would be bad here. I'd rather keep pwning the bubble than make a marginal call in a lose/lose situation.

[The Venetian]

I doubt there's any equity gained from being sneaky here. BB should just run the table over, as is his right.

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]
@Josem
I think this was answered before: 75%
This range is appropiate as hero pushed him around the last 3 times and he is far too loose. I don't have Pokerstove around but I suppose that 82s is -EV against this range.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seriously think the villain calls with 93s here? That's the hand that sits at the 75th percentile....

While, of course, there is no absolute, provable answer on the villain's range, even if you've been pushed into several times in a row, I suspect that most ordinary opponents are not going to call with hands that are worse than 50/50 against a random hand.

The 45% range seems about right to me - that includes Kx, and includes down to Q4s and J9o as the weakest two hands. Thus, in my eyes, it should be a push.


Another way of looking at it is to consider what your range would be as villain. How much does your range move as a result of someone pushing into your BB on three consecutive orbits?

If I were the opponent, I'd certainly increase my expectation of the hero's calling range as a result of this, but not drastically.