What's my hand look like to a 5/10 regular?

[TheWorstPlayer]

that's true. in the OP, since the 6 paired, J9 got coutnerfeited and 666 is less likely, so i think the bluff is even worse than in my hand. and in retrospect, i think my bluff is bad, too. no one ever folds anything ever. that's the general bottom line.

[hardkAre]

Aha, so you're GogUMagog on PS [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'll remember next time I play you.

[bair]

i never bluff-raise paired boards on the river against anyone that i dont know very well because i get looked up every time

[howzit]

would a big one pair hand bet that much on the river? villain hand looks like top boat first, then busted AK, and then an overpair. the only way he has an overpair is if he whiffed a turn c/r. . .but, i'd bet an overpair on the turn in his spot being that a lot of turns are going to get checked through. draws can't afford getting cr'ed all in and one pair hands would like to control the pot.

your hand looks like trips/underboat, sneaky AA, a rivered eights full, and a straight draw (that may or may not have gotten there -- you'd probably play it the same way either way)

a lot of how much villain can call you light w/one pair would dependant on how villain likes to play the turn and also how often you float the flop and yet check the turn looking to use the river to bluff. very few people will float flop and then wait for another street to use this exact move.

with the drawy texture, it's hard for you to have "any two" here and would make calling a lot harder for a strong one pair. also, you're laying a nice price and it's a pretty good indicator you're strong.

from what dlp tells me, you're fairly active and capable of tons of moves so i would guess you bet a straight draw often on the turn. in other words, if you were bluffing, you're probably more likely to stab the turn, then wait to the river to raise all-in. (altho it's a very strong move)

anyway, my guess is you have a six.

[TxRedMan]

I think the worst paired hand you make this river bet with is something like JT, and the best is something like 888. Given the action I'd never really give you credit for JJJ, and I wouldn't fold AJ here, either. I wouldn't like calling w/ AJ, but I still wouldnt fold.


edit: saw your last post, ugh. fold somewhere in the hand, you're not deep enough to try this river shove. you only beat AK-AQ, and he folds those hands on the river. If it was $1000-ish for him to call the river then I like it, otherwise forget it.

[iRock]

Ya i was kind of trying something new Tx. Obv it didnt work here, but I think a strong bluff is one where you look like you could never be bluffing. If i have 1kish i think it looks more like a bluff than if i have instead of 500 eff maybe like 700 more. 500 was a little too small in retrospect, but i think 1k is too much. I am not sure still though, obviously 99% of the time i dont take A9 through here, i was just trying something new and seeing what people thought and how they would react. The general consensus seems to be "you look really strong, but id still call you down pretty light" which is a good lesson for me to learn here.

Howzit - your post pretty much illustrates the picture i was trying to paint for the villain. ive been fairly active so he would think i would try to take it away on the turn unless i was REALLY strong. So then when he bets and i raise with seemingly no fold equity, i was hoping he would view that as very strong and fold a huge part of his range.

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Ya i was kind of trying something new Tx. Obv it didnt work here, but I think a strong bluff is one where you look like you could never be bluffing. If i have 1kish i think it looks more like a bluff than if i have instead of 500 eff maybe like 700 more. 500 was a little too small in retrospect, but i think 1k is too much. I am not sure still though, obviously 99% of the time i dont take A9 through here, i was just trying something new and seeing what people thought and how they would react. The general consensus seems to be "you look really strong, but id still call you down pretty light" which is a good lesson for me to learn here.

Howzit - your post pretty much illustrates the picture i was trying to paint for the villain. ive been fairly active so he would think i would try to take it away on the turn unless i was REALLY strong. So then when he bets and i raise with seemingly no fold equity, i was hoping he would view that as very strong and fold a huge part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

your logic makes sense, but only against someone you have a lot of history with. i agree that more times this should work, e.g., if you're raising someone $500 more on the river and it gives them 4-1 to make the call, it should be clear that you know they can't fold any pair/whatever and are therefore raising for value.

the problem you ran into here is that you dont have that kind of image/history with this particular player, and the default scenario when you raised him was -sigh- "i call", followed by "wow, that's why i never fold there".

[iRock]

I agree completely.

[howzit]

[ QUOTE ]
Howzit - your post pretty much illustrates the picture i was trying to paint for the villain. ive been fairly active so he would think i would try to take it away on the turn unless i was REALLY strong. So then when he bets and i raise with seemingly no fold equity, i was hoping he would view that as very strong and fold a huge part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

this hand shows that it's too thin a line between trying to look like you're giving too great a price for him to think he's beat and actually giving to good a price. lol.

however, it's more of a testament to you to pull that move. it's a superstar money loser play in the short and long run, and it won't help pay the bills. . .but if i were opponent, i think even more highly of your game and be careful to tangle OOP with you in the future. unless you started steaming.

as a side note, my friend does this bluff to perfection laying some of the sickest prices on bluffs while repping the only one hand that could've gotten there on the river. However, he looks like a rock, and basically gets people to think he's an ABC player. that's not an image you would ever have. . .

[raptor517]

irock, looks like a boat or air to me. i dont give ppl any credit for being able to fold overpairs here at 5-10.