A rag or 98o?

[JocK]

Basing your judgement on the jam-or-fold tables in Chen and Ankenman's "Mathematics of Poker" is perhaps not a bad thing to do. (These tables contain the optimal play of the heads-up jam-or-fold game.)

According to Chen and Ankenman's tables, for A2o it is better to push stacks up to 29.2 BB, whilst for 98o one should prefer jamming over folding for stacks only up to 20.5 BB. Higher A-rag hands (A3o, A4o etc.) all have even higher jamming power.

According to the same tables, a hand like T9o has equivalent jamming-strength as A3o (EV-positive up to stacks of 31.9 BB).

[Nichlemn]

Remember with A2, while you're in worse shape than 98 if your opponents calls with 55, you're in better shape when your opponent calls with KK, KQ and similar hands.

People fear domination probably a bit too much: while you apparently have half as many outs, in reality your equity is about 3/4 what would be with "live cards", plus there's a smaller probability your opponent holds a dominating hand given you hold one of the cards.

[GeeBeeQED]

In a situation where It's growing likely I'll face one or more calls, my M is very low (lets say 3-4 or &lt, I'm out of the money, It's folded to me, I like 98. As decribed, your often (and properly) going to get called by any decent stack with any pair, any ace, any k-t or two face and better. Realize I'm probably making the move here with any two cards however, I'm glad to have a probable non-dominated hand that also has two overs to 1/2 or more of the likely calling pairs. You've also got 2 cards to a straight which would add greatly to your hopes against over pairs. The question is complex and leads to endless if-then scenarios. Without M's the question cannot be answered very accurately. In my presumed scenario (fits as possible with your OP) I'm figuring to be called by every ace. It seems like there are too many dominated hands if you assume every ace calls. Maybe I am a victim of worrying too much about domination?

Dave

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
In a situation where It's growing likely I'll face one or more calls, my M is very low (lets say 3-4 or &lt, I'm out of the money, It's folded to me, I like 98. As decribed, your often (and properly) going to get called by any decent stack with any pair, any ace, any k-t or two face and better.


[/ QUOTE ]
Against that range, 98o wins 37.3% when called.
Against that range, A7o wins 44.4% when called.
A7o is called less frequently.

I do not understand why people are going on and on about how much they like having two live cards. Why is that more important than money?

[ QUOTE ]

Without M's the question cannot be answered very accurately.


[/ QUOTE ]
This might be meaningful if you could point to some realistic M, and some resulting calling distribution, so that 98o would do better than A7o. Otherwise, it looks like you are stubbornly refusing to give up a faulty argument even after it has been shown to be wrong.

There are arguments for 98o. It does better than A7o in some multiway pots. However, for that to be relevant you have to expect to be called by multiple players a significant amount of the time, which means picking up the blinds is quite unlikely, and pushing with substandard hands is likely to be a bad idea.

By the way, there are much better strategies than pushing with any two in early position when your M is 3. It's a copout by people who don't want to be bothered by figuring out how to play well with a short stack, despite the fact that being short-stacked is a normal part of tournament poker, and that stack could easily represent more than a buy-in of equity.

[GeeBeeQED]

Phzon, I'm not stubornly attached to this idea. Perhaps you misundstand. In fact I enjoy the first part of your responce showing the percentages (I presume) against my suggested calling range. You've got me thinking and that is why I participate here.

I clearly state the the if-then situation and say "folded" to me. That's not early pos, I'm eluding to mid to late with that remark.

I was not suggesting letting oneself get to an M of 3 was part of any strategy that should be employed. How you got there has little bearing on this question that I can figure out. I was just describing a hypathetical condition where I fugure the calling range for my opponents will be very wide. Yes that is how I'd play it there with an M of 3. Put that in your notes. However, the purpose of my post was not to venture off into end game commentary. I think that widens the discussion beyond the OP. Just setting the scene.

With respect,
Dave

[TWCReborn]

"Kill Everyone" mentions calling hands vs. pushing hands. 89s will do better against overpairs than Ax will if the overpair is between A and x obviously. 89 vs and underpair is a coinflip as Ax vs an underpair is also a coinflip as long as x is greater than the pair.

If someone is likely to call more with pairs than high cards, I might slightly adjust from what would be suggested from HOH or Sklansky rankings. Ax being called also has the danger of being called by a higher Ax (only slightly less likely because even though holding an ace halves the number of combos from 6 to 3, in my opinion people are not going to lay down Ax in a high blind situation).

All-in-all, the initial question of 89s vs. Ax is not an easy one. What is x? Also pay structure, relative stack sizes, future play (how far you are from the blinds), your CSI (or how many orbits you can survive) and the calling ranges of other players set to act after you all matter. For this type of analysis, I like sit-n-go wizard a lot. They use the independent chip model to calculate the best equity play in push/fold calculations. The weaknesses in their analyses are 1.) They prune branches when there are 4 or more players in a hand, 2.) You cannot use anything other than Sklansky rankings for ranges, 3.) They do not consider future play (they do if you turn this option on, but it is not reliable IMO).

[Gonso]

I highly recommend the jam/fold tables in MoP as well as the SNGPT program for those of you struggling here.

[rakemeplz]

"89s will do better against overpairs than Ax will if the overpair is between A and x obviously."

Huh? This can't be right. The ace wins more often vs a high pair rather than low suited connectors.

[Bone_Daddy]

Pzhon and gonzo, thanks for the layout accounting for the fold equity and including how the card removal effect affects the math. It was very helpful.

My argument was a little off base and not articulated well (what a surprise). I wasn't arguing "which one do you prefer", but more that as play tightens, the more likely some of the top 15% hands like QJ start to drop out (yes, I should of kept KQ in my analysis), increasing the likelihood that an ace -7 is dominated and thus no better than 89.

I still stand by my point that a situational analysis should be incorporated in your jamming decision, and should be equally if not more inclined to jam a connector if the calling range of the folks to your left has become super tight for the fold equity alone, as both hands stink if called.

btw, the last time i was in a bar 2 guys were aurguing that hot water freezes into ice cubes faster than cold water not 89 vs a7.

[Albert Moulton]

A-rag is much better than 89o in an all-in situation blind.

Check out the sections in No Limit Hold 'Em Theory and Practice on Sklansky-Chubukov numbers, and calling all-ins preflop. You'll see that A-rag fairs a lot better than 89o in these situations.