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#11
10-07-2007, 12:12 AM
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Re: Ugh I suck on the river
I find it almost impossible to believe he has either a 7 or a K, unless he is a super weak/loose/passive idiot (which he may well be) or actually very tricky (which you seem to indicate he's not). If you think he is capable of check/calling top pair on the flop and turn, or middle pair/trips on flop and turn, then I guess we'd have some math to do and a check might well be in order. IMHO he can't have a K or a 7, leaving:
Busted flush draw played weakly Busted straight draw played weakly 5X type hands JX type hands (likely with 2 diamonds) Pocket pairs So here's a question....What do you think his 3-bet range is preflop? I assumed it included 99+, but if he doesn't pop you back with the lower end of that (maybe 99 and TT....you said he's bad) then there is more stuff beating us. If he is typical of a "bad player" I'd see in my game, I would definitely bet because his range is heavily weighted towards the 5X type hands. 
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#12
10-07-2007, 12:48 AM
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I have thoughts
When the turn goes check call there are really only three options:
-flush draw -King played very, very weakly -5x Anything outside of this is pretty unlikely,IMO. Maybe we'll get shown AT or 99 once in a while, but the above is generally what we're looking at. I suppose the only hands that will call a bet ever that we beat are 5x (and that may not call all the time or even most of the time), 66 and A high. Everything else either beats us or is a busted draw that isn't calling anyway. [ QUOTE ] If he is typical of a "bad player" I'd see in my game, I would definitely bet because his range is heavily weighted towards the 5X type hands. [/ QUOTE ] But I think you're absolutely right here. A substantial portion of the time in these games I think villain is going to show us Kxo. But I also think the majority of the time <u>when he is calling the river</u> this is A5o and other 5x hands, 66, 44 and A high. I only expect to get called here about 50% of the time. But I definitely expect to win 60% of the time I get called, approximately. Clear, but thin, bet.
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#13
10-07-2007, 03:03 AM
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Re: Ugh I suck on the river
[ QUOTE ]
Two 2+2ers in the game (plus me) so it's much tougher than usual [/ QUOTE ] Why are you playing in the game? Isn't this at best break even seven handed?
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#14
10-07-2007, 03:48 AM
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Re: Ugh I suck on the river
lol
that depends on the other 2p2ers doesn't it.
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#16
10-07-2007, 05:57 AM
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Re: Ugh I suck on the river
Couldn't the villain, knowingly or not, play this as wa/wb situation with a weak K and let that aggressive guy bet all the way with a worse hand?
Why would the villain raise a 7 on the turn, or a K for that matter? Wouldn't it be probable for the villain to think that Hero might often muck AQ or whatever here he'd fire a second barrel with UI with, pps in the 88-TT range, maybe even a weak K. Just considering this viewpoint also that has been neglected a bit IMO. Maybe for a good reason...
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#18
10-07-2007, 10:39 AM
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Re: Ugh I suck on the river
[ QUOTE ]
LOL at everyone who refuses to believe that your typical B&M calling station is likely checkcalling the entire way with Kx. [/ QUOTE ] You're going to hear a lot of "Wow. I thought you had aces or AK." as you get called by Kx here. This is live, remember. If he's the type of player I'm used to he's got Kx or 5x a lot, weighed more towards the king. I think betting would be right if he views you as crazy/aggro and feels he needs to showdown ace high here, otherwise check.
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