My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

[Poker Plan]

[ QUOTE ]
as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's that close to 0 EV, and the number of Outs is relatively low- is it not better (swing-wise)to fold?

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

variance should be completely irrelevant in a limit game.

[fretelöo]

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as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's that close to 0 EV, and the number of Outs is relatively low- is it not better (swing-wise)to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. In that case you should always CALL because you never know if villains cat doesn't happen to choose this exact moment to bite in his big toe, making his finger jerk, resulting in an "raise" click at that lovely J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

actually i factored in the 'villains cat misclick' already

[halpgr]

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as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's that close to 0 EV, and the number of Outs is relatively low- is it not better (swing-wise)to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
If it's EV 0 then you might as well call, because calling is more enjoyable than folding. If you fold you're sure to lose the hand, but if you call you might win. If it's EV 0 then it's "free" to call so call because winning hands is more enjoyable than losing.

I'm not extending this to the fish mentality of chasing regardless of pot odds because they enjoy winning hands, just in an EV 0 situation I'd think the game is more enjoyable staying in the hand.

[Buzz-cp]

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variance should be completely irrelevant in a limit game.

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This is not true if it has a psychological effect on your future playing abilities. If it is 0 EV then perhaps it is better to fold. I think this is slightly +EV tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Poker Plan]

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If it's EV 0 then you might as well call, because calling is more enjoyable than folding. If you fold you're sure to lose the hand, but if you call you might win. If it's EV 0 then it's "free" to call so call because winning hands is more enjoyable than losing.

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OK so if EVERY hand you play, you have 1 out on the turn to win the hand. So you are a 45:1 dog to win. The pot lays you 46:1- so you have an "edge". You're calling every time right?

[Thomas Newton]

Right. But check you remembered to include in your calc any extra bets you might win if your miracle happens.

If there are enough players in to make a 45 to 1 pot after the turn your probly going to get called in a few spots.

[Poker Plan]

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Right. But check you remembered to include in your calc any extra bets you might win if your miracle happens.

If there are enough players in to make a 45 to 1 pot after the turn your probly going to get called in a few spots.

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With all respect it was a totally hyperthetical question- the pots never going to lay you 45:1. The ppoint of the question is:

What is the point of chasing a 2.2% chance of winning- just to "just about" break-even??? The long run suddenly just got a lot longer- for virtually no profit. And rememberL Only when you hit the 2.2% chance do you get the pay back for the other losses- right back to where you started!