September [censored] thread

[gonebroke2]

I don't think they should cut rates either. Let the market tank. Purge the system. Even if they lower, it is not going to help anything...just buying a little time. The general public is broke (no more home ATM's) and nothing is going to fix that. Expecting to see tons of earnings misses in 4th 07 and 1st 08 & pathetic payroll numbers tomorrow too.

[Shoe]

[ QUOTE ]
im sitting im my investment portfolio management class and the prof. just got mad when I told him its irrational that volatility equates with risk. "..you cant beat the market" he answered me by saying.

Then he asked the class "if you had to describe a stock to a friend, what would you say?" Someone replies that you can look at the future growth prospects, and prof replies that we shouldnt look at that because its already priced into the market. Only thing to consider is risk and volatility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell your prof that those who can't do, teach.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
im sitting im my investment portfolio management class and the prof. just got mad when I told him its irrational that volatility equates with risk. "..you cant beat the market" he answered me by saying.

Then he asked the class "if you had to describe a stock to a friend, what would you say?" Someone replies that you can look at the future growth prospects, and prof replies that we shouldnt look at that because its already priced into the market. Only thing to consider is risk and volatility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ask him to explain warren buffets "Superinvestors of Graham-Doddsville" lecture. Then ask him how Buffett has crushed the market for over fifty years believing that volatility isn't risk.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think they should cut rates either. Let the market tank. Purge the system. Even if they lower, it is not going to help anything...just buying a little time. The general public is broke (no more home ATM's) and nothing is going to fix that. Expecting to see tons of earnings misses in 4th 07 and 1st 08 & pathetic payroll numbers tomorrow too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change
Consensus 100.000

Unemployment Rate - Level
Consensus 4.7 %


Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change
Consensus 0.3 %

Average Workweek - Level
Consensus 33.8 hrs

those are the consensus #s for tomorrow's employment report.

where do you think they'll come in?

(i.e. if you get to read this, please post before the #s are released)

i think non farm payrolls will come in very close to consensus.

i think unemployment will be at or below consensus. business has been fairly optimistic and initial claims came in below expecations so i'd think the UE rate will come in at 4.6 or 4.7%

i don't know much about where avg hourly earnings will come in since i don't recall where they were last month but given the relatively tight labor market and capacity utilization level, i'd be surprised if they came in at .1. i'd think at worst it would be .2% increase (.1% below expectations)

i'd think the avg workweek might come in a bit lower though, maybe 33hrs vs. 33.8. possibly even lower. i think employers are most likely to cut back demand for labor vs. cutting workers, especially in jobs that are most likely to be hourly. nonmanufacturing jobs though have been in demand so that might keep the demand higher so i wouldn't expect a big negative reading here (32 would surprise me).

we'll see how it all plays out tomorrow though.

i'd like to get yourthoughts before the report to see how you think about this. given your "pathetic" comment, i think you expect UE at 4.9 or 5%, workweeks at 30 or 31 etc.

so try to get your actual estimates out there before the actual #s come out.

Barron

[Jimbo]

Only one I have a firm opinion on is Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at 128,000

Jimbo

[ahnuld]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im sitting im my investment portfolio management class and the prof. just got mad when I told him its irrational that volatility equates with risk. "..you cant beat the market" he answered me by saying.

Then he asked the class "if you had to describe a stock to a friend, what would you say?" Someone replies that you can look at the future growth prospects, and prof replies that we shouldnt look at that because its already priced into the market. Only thing to consider is risk and volatility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ask him to explain warren buffets "Superinvestors of Graham-Doddsville" lecture. Then ask him how Buffett has crushed the market for over fifty years believing that volatility isn't risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pulled out that speech on my laptop but then deicded I actualy want an A in this class so I just left when the lecture was done.

[gonebroke2]

[ QUOTE ]

we'll see how it all plays out tomorrow though.

i'd like to get yourthoughts before the report to see how you think about this. given your "pathetic" comment, i think you expect UE at 4.9 or 5%, workweeks at 30 or 31 etc.

so try to get your actual estimates out there before the actual #s come out.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Just read your post now. Looks like the Fed has no choice but to cut? Dollar is getting smashed on that belief.

[john kane]

ffs. just a couple of days ago i was going to spreadbet long on gold leveraging a [censored] load. it was at $680. now it's up at $700. [censored] [censored] [censored]. im going to anyway though.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

we'll see how it all plays out tomorrow though.

i'd like to get yourthoughts before the report to see how you think about this. given your "pathetic" comment, i think you expect UE at 4.9 or 5%, workweeks at 30 or 31 etc.

so try to get your actual estimates out there before the actual #s come out.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Just read your post now. Looks like the Fed has no choice but to cut? Dollar is getting smashed on that belief.

[/ QUOTE ]

to be honest, eventually the market turmoil will affect the economy. this was known and the question of when and how was posed.

in the grand scheme of things, a 4k drop in employment is very little (as is a 100k addition). it is just the realization that the impact on the real economy has started is a jolt for people i guess.

even before this # i'd thinkt he fed would have cut rates by 25bps.

the real trick here is still to cut by enough to say "we'er on top of it" but not by too much to say "we're here when you mess up."

if i were running the fed i'd hold rates constant again (for the last time) and await september data to see whether a cut would be necessary on oct 20th. i'd want the markets to a) not expect a cut when things turn south due to poor risks taken, and b) not cut unless a lot of data come out.

one data point a trend does not make.

clearly the reverse of this argument is that the fed should preempt real economic losses by cutting in advance of poor data (i.e. don't drive through the rear view mirror). typically i agree with this but the sept 18th action holds bigger threats of incurring moral hazard that may prove more costly in the future than the gain to the economy that a 25bp cut could provide.

just some thoughts.

Barron

[irunnotgood]

where my gold bugs at?