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#11
02-09-2007, 01:26 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
Pick: Niagara -5
Are these two teams just five points apart? Not even close. Let's look at play vs. common opponents this season. Niagara has gone 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS. St. Peters in contrast has gone 1-11 SU and 4-7 ATS. Versus these common opponents, Niagara has scored a full 21 points per game more than St. Peters. When these two teams met on January 3, Niagara won by 33 points. Sure, that was a home game and this is on the road, but what we can see here is that Niagara is WAY better than St. Peters and having to lay just 5 points is a gift. St. Peters is 3-20 on the season and 2-8 at home. Against the spread, they are winless at home. Niagara is a winning road team that has gone 8-4 ATS away from home. With Joe Mihalich as head coach, Niagara is 15-5 ATS on the road vs. losing teams in late-season play. St. Peters is 5-22 ATS their last 22 home games as an underdog. They are also 0-6 ATS the past two seasons at home vs. winning teams. BET IT ALL...TAKE IT DOWN 
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#12
02-09-2007, 01:39 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Dear Sporsbetters, I am on a very disasterous downswing right now, I lost about half my bankroll in 3 days through poker then double or nothing on a sports game. Tomorrow, I am going to roll my last half of my bankroll on one game. I want somewhat even odds (-110 to +110). What is the best game for me to do this? Thanks for your help Oh and Im on tilt and know this is a bad idea, so any speech about bankroll management will fall on deaf ears. [/ QUOTE ] To be honest, I'd pick a random -140 line. You want your odds to be better than 50% chance of winning and you have no clue what to pick, so just big a favorite and hope to win. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not following the logic here...
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#14
02-09-2007, 02:05 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Dear Sporsbetters, I am on a very disasterous downswing right now, I lost about half my bankroll in 3 days through poker then double or nothing on a sports game. Tomorrow, I am going to roll my last half of my bankroll on one game. I want somewhat even odds (-110 to +110). What is the best game for me to do this? Thanks for your help Oh and Im on tilt and know this is a bad idea, so any speech about bankroll management will fall on deaf ears. [/ QUOTE ] To be honest, I'd pick a random -140 line. You want your odds to be better than 50% chance of winning and you have no clue what to pick, so just big a favorite and hope to win. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not following the logic here... [/ QUOTE ] He's just saying to bet on a heavy favorite.
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#15
02-09-2007, 02:08 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Dear Sporsbetters, I am on a very disasterous downswing right now, I lost about half my bankroll in 3 days through poker then double or nothing on a sports game. Tomorrow, I am going to roll my last half of my bankroll on one game. I want somewhat even odds (-110 to +110). What is the best game for me to do this? Thanks for your help Oh and Im on tilt and know this is a bad idea, so any speech about bankroll management will fall on deaf ears. [/ QUOTE ] To be honest, I'd pick a random -140 line. You want your odds to be better than 50% chance of winning and you have no clue what to pick, so just big a favorite and hope to win. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not following the logic here... [/ QUOTE ] Easy hedge. We're assuming his money right now has -EV because he is on tilt. But assuming it is only tilt, that means he's a +EV poker and handicapper. So the point is to balance his need to tilt with odds. 50% chance to win is too small, you want to give him as much of an edge in winning as you can while still ridding him of his tilt. Can't pick a -500 line cuz it won't get him off tilt.
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#16
02-09-2007, 02:11 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
he specifically said he wanted -110 to +110 odds. i dont get why everyone is telling him this is a bad idea. he obviously knows that. LET THE MAN GAMBLE.
as a warriors fan, i would say take chicago +1.5(-110) at golden state.
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#17
02-09-2007, 02:15 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
[ QUOTE ]
he specifically said he wanted -110 to +110 odds. i dont get why everyone is telling him this is a bad idea. he obviously knows that. LET THE MAN GAMBLE. as a warriors fan, i would say take chicago +1.5(-110) at golden state. [/ QUOTE ] I suggested a -140 favorite because it should be enough to get him off tilt and he has a better shot @ winning. The key in all things gamble...is to not go broke. There are few opportunities if any where you should really risk it all.
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#18
02-09-2007, 02:35 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
[ QUOTE ]
There are few opportunities if any where you should really risk it all. [/ QUOTE ] THIS IS ONE OF THEM. RISK IT ALL NIGGA.
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#19
02-09-2007, 02:36 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Dear Sporsbetters, I am on a very disasterous downswing right now, I lost about half my bankroll in 3 days through poker then double or nothing on a sports game. Tomorrow, I am going to roll my last half of my bankroll on one game. I want somewhat even odds (-110 to +110). What is the best game for me to do this? Thanks for your help Oh and Im on tilt and know this is a bad idea, so any speech about bankroll management will fall on deaf ears. [/ QUOTE ] To be honest, I'd pick a random -140 line. You want your odds to be better than 50% chance of winning and you have no clue what to pick, so just big a favorite and hope to win. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not following the logic here... [/ QUOTE ] Easy hedge. We're assuming his money right now has -EV because he is on tilt. But assuming it is only tilt, that means he's a +EV poker and handicapper. So the point is to balance his need to tilt with odds. 50% chance to win is too small, you want to give him as much of an edge in winning as you can while still ridding him of his tilt. Can't pick a -500 line cuz it won't get him off tilt. [/ QUOTE ] You don't think increasing his bankroll by 20% in one day would get him off tilt? That must be some major tilt.
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#20
02-09-2007, 02:41 PM
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Re: I need one game for my entire bankroll
[ QUOTE ]
You don't think increasing his bankroll by 20% in one day would get him off tilt? That must be some major tilt. [/ QUOTE ] his bankroll probably isn't very large, nor a significant percentage of his net worth. (i hope).
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