Huge Value On THE TRIBE

[sublime]

this series is a lot closer to pk than -160

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
this series is a lot closer to pk than -160

[/ QUOTE ]

No, its not. You suck at this also. Go back to SE.

For why this sucks I will indulge everyone.

First in betting there are lines and probability. Cents in betting lines are not linear. Each cent you move away from even money is worth less than the ones before it.

-160 would be a odds of 61.54% that Boston wins the series. If sublime was referring to probability then... 55.77 would be the middle ground and the corresponding line would be... -126. If he was talking about the line it would be -130 (LOL simple mathaments). But since he has no clue what he is talking about. Who the [censored] cares?

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this series is a lot closer to pk than -160

[/ QUOTE ]

No, its not. You suck at this also. Go back to SE.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, really?

give me fair game lines with probable pitching matchups for games 1-7.

i mean i don't want to publicly show you how incorrect you are are but since you had to be all too cool for school i will.

i will wait.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this series is a lot closer to pk than -160

[/ QUOTE ]

No, its not. You suck at this also. Go back to SE.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, really?

give me fair game lines with probable pitching matchups for games 1-7.

i mean i don't want to publicly show you how incorrect you are are but since you had to be all too cool for school i will.

i will wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I don't do this myself does not mean that I do not use higher quality numbers than you.

Not to mention your use of terminology is poor.

I'd also love to see how your numbers differ from market numbers for the subsequent games if/why you'd prefer a series bet over shorter odds/more bets individually.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Yankees being overrated: No. Best team in baseballs going forward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Garbage.

Is that a new theory? A best team can't be overrated?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1) Yankees being overrated: No. Best team in baseballs going forward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Garbage.

Is that a new theory? A best team can't be overrated?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, lines are almost always off in playoff baseball against them. But I don't think you could really make an argument for "very overrated". Well maybe. I took it to mean that he was saying the Yankees were not the best team in the playoffs, while the are head and shoulders above the crowd (along with Sox).

[Thremp]

Sublime,

To clarify, does the fact I do not handicap playoff baseball strengthens your argument?


To give a parallel. You say Pujols will hit ~52 HRs next year (about equally off from market). I rebuke you saying you're a clown. You ask me to produce my numbers...

Now at this point I could simply be using CHONE/ZIPS/PECOTA for my guesstimating all of which are likely superior to whatever numbers you came up with since you disagree and I'm better at this than you. Putting that aside. The fact I do not do my own numbers, and utilize someone else's has no bearing on whether I am correct or not. And provided that the source I use is actually expert level, would likely result in me being better at this than you with no understanding and merely looking at the outcomes (what I do).

[sublime]

ok i have an issue here.

i mis ran my numbers. basically i had a typo which had beckett not as strong as he should have been.

my FAIR NON JUICED line is boston -127 for the series. so even though i made a mistake, i wasn't actually wrong as -127 is closer to PK than -160 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] when you add a nickel juice though it isn't....you got me on a technicality.

regardless, there is vale on these lines being offered on CLE.

these are based on non juiced lines of:

bos -132
bos -118
bos -112
cle -122
cle PK
bos -118
bos -129

[Thremp]

Your line on game one is significantly off of market lines. Ergo your game 5 as well. I can't really comment beyond that. I have faith in the numbers I use and wish you luck on yours.

You also need to become aware of the non-linear nature of betting lines. -127 is closer to -160 than pk as I explained earlier.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
To give a parallel. You say Pujols will hit ~52 HRs next year (about equally off from market). I rebuke you saying you're a clown. You ask me to produce my numbers..

[/ QUOTE ]

and thats a silly request? you say somebody has no idea what they are talking about and they ask you YOUR side on the issue and you say it doesn't matter its better than yours.

brilliant strategy~ one can never lose using this logic. my cap off to you.

[ QUOTE ]

Now at this point I could simply be using CHONE/ZIPS/PECOTA for my guesstimating

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, which you could simple answer with...is it really that hard?

[ QUOTE ]
all of which are likely superior to whatever numbers you came up

[/ QUOTE ]

right, because clearly i use information such as RBI's and SB's to judge a teams expected win %.

[ QUOTE ]
since you disagree and I'm better at this than you

[/ QUOTE ]

better at what exactly?

[ QUOTE ]
The fact I do not do my own numbers, and utilize someone else's has no bearing on whether I am correct or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

um yeah, ok....did i disagree with you? lol, youre calling everybody stupid and telling them to go away yet when i ask you to give me a fair line of each of the games (you know the actual ingredients in a series money line) you spout that it doesn't matter because you use better information than me.

so its basically:

somebody tells you the line for BOS is -150 and you believe them and anyone who says otherwise is clearly an idiot.

ok, then ask THEM for fair game lines for all 7 games. clearly if they are EXPERT LEVEL MLB BETTORS they actually have game lines to put into a series equation.