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#11
06-04-2007, 07:10 PM
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Re: Bellagio Hand 2 3/6
[ QUOTE ]
I am with you on not 3betting the turn here because he'll fold lots when he is drawing dead I'm guessing. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly what hand can he be raising the turn with that is drawing dead? The board is AJT7, so if he has less than two pair, he has a gutshot. I think an argument FOR 3betting the turn is that he is almost never drawing dead, so you're not that upset if he folds and he may get sucked into calling the river and paying off with his weakest raising hands. I don't know how the dynamics of high stakes live limit games go and the read on this particular player affects whether 3betting the turn is right or not. This is a pretty bad board (relatively speaking) for a set of jacks. That said, if you just call the turn, bet/3bet the river is the clear winner. 
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#14
06-05-2007, 01:09 AM
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Re: Bellagio Hand 2 3/6
"I don't 3bet the turn much as a semibluff so against an excellent player I am with you on not 3betting the turn here because he'll fold lots when he is drawing dead I'm guessing."
great except given the board texture he's drawing live a huge majority of the time. look ma, 3 balls!
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#15
06-05-2007, 01:11 AM
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Re: Bellagio Hand 2 3/6
"Some random Ace doesn't need to have a gutshot here."
some random ace in the hands of a very good player is not raising that turn against bk's pf 3 bet, flop dark bet, turn bet. or if he does he's not very good.
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#16
06-05-2007, 01:35 AM
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Re: Bellagio Hand 2 3/6
[ QUOTE ]
"Some random Ace doesn't need to have a gutshot here." some random ace in the hands of a very good player is not raising that turn against bk's pf 3 bet, flop dark bet, turn bet. or if he does he's not very good. [/ QUOTE ] The board is developing in such a way that there are wacky possibilities and AX is more likely to get paid off. You think that the best line with AX on the button here is to just call down when we flop top pair? *edit* What hands should he raise here on the turn? It sounds like you think it is made up of two pair+ as well as semibluffs with lots of outs but not marginal hands? Is the T specifically a horrible card for button to raise here with an A? If it was a K would it be better or would that present the same problems? What if it was a 2-9? I don't really see the flop dark bet as that important, it's not like he's going to check, lots of people just throw out dark bets on the flop once in a while for no reason other than to do it. If it was a dark bet on the turn I think that would be more significant but I don't think I'd know how. Given responses regarding turn I am probably wrong about villain being dead on the turn raise. I do think he will be drawing live a decent amount but I actually thought he'd be close to dead/4 outs to gutshot a ton of the time and those times we can extract more. The times he is two pair/set we win the same probably unless the board trainwrecks us. The time he is drawing we lose out on a little. In Holdem I think I may suffer from reverse monsters under the bed syndrome where I give everyone credit for marginal hands at best most of the time. Normally this means I take them to value town but in the rare cases that they are actually good players it means that I'm afraid they will fold second best. I'm very open to any ideas on this sort of thing because I am fully aware that playing against people that know how to play is my biggest weakness by far. On the turn at least I'm open for other ideas. There's no way I don't bet the river and I think checking is between wrong and really wrong depending on what the river is. On this one I think it's really wrong.
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#18
06-05-2007, 02:09 AM
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Re: Bellagio Hand 2 3/6
too many questions/over alayzing. button's range here with the turn raise is such that a turn 3 bet will show max EV, not really close or debateable. just like at the table, dont have much time to think more about it, but im right. sorry.
mike
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