#11
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Re: AKs vs donk
But is he really ahead on the flop? Help me count the outs...
Rephrase: Hero is ahead on the flop against Villains ACTUAL hand, but is he ahead against the likely range? Given the play, I would have thought AQ, AA, KK, QQ, and perhaps even KQ well within the Villain's range, and I think we are behind against all of those. Assuming we put him on a queen, QJ and QT are just about the only ones we are beating - that that isn't even counting 2p or sets, in which case are just drawing to our flush or runner-runner straights. Am I missing something here? |
#12
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Re: AKs vs donk
[ QUOTE ]
Help me count the outs... [/ QUOTE ] 9 hearts/3 Ks/3 As/1 out for the backdoor straight draw. 16 outs. On average he'll have AT LEAST 13 of these outs. Sometimes the ace or king is not a clean out. Add in if he does this with the type of hand he has and lower pairs as noted in the OP and it makes this a clear push. |
#13
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Re: AKs vs donk
My point exactly - 16 outs against Villain's hand, but not against the range.
Against AQ - a very likely holding - he has 9 hearts + 1 for straights + 1 for other unlikely runner-runner cards = 12 outs. And it will be 12 outs for most of the likely range. Average yourself up to a generous 13 outs, and it's close but still behind. 16 outs put us barely ahead on the flop, and given how many hands in range come with fewer outs, I can't help but think that the net result is that we are behind any rational range. |
#14
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Re: AKs vs donk
Yeah, definitely standard except I shove the flop.
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#15
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Re: AKs vs donk
Actually by your addition it's 11 outs, not 12, you're forgetting that the K is 3 outs here though. 3 kings + 1 for unlikely draw + 9 hearts = 13 outs.
[ QUOTE ] I can't help but think that the net result is that we are behind any rational range. [/ QUOTE ] in the op he said that opponents range was underpairs and hands like he had, so this is a snap call. |
#16
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Re: AKs vs donk
Easy push, even giving him a tight range like I did
32,670 games 0.059 secs 553,728 games/sec Board: 3h 5h Qc Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 40.165% 40.00% 00.17% 13068 54.00 { AhKh } Hand 1: 59.835% 59.67% 00.17% 19494 54.00 { QQ+, 55, 33, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo } you have to push considering how much in the pot already. Pf is bad, re raise him big! |
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