($1050) WSOP Satellite make the big call w/ 66? - Page 2

limbosongs · #11 03-31-2007, 05:40 AM

maybe if you had a number of big stacks on your left, you could make an argument for calling. however, you have a series of stacks on your left that you have a huge amount of FE against.

ryanghall · #12 03-31-2007, 10:58 AM

Guys, I am 100% sure JJ is too tight to call in this situation.

Keep in mind I'm not exactly getting wonderful chances to push because the guy to my right is raising a ton of pots.

If the status quo remains for a few orbits and there are no setup hands, what can happen is the other short stack and I go down to 5K chips and the next shortest players have 15K (with the blinds up by then).

Not looking so good at that point.

However, if I double up now there's a very good chance I'll be able to make it in taking into account skill level.

I understand the value of being extremely tight in most situations near the end of a satellite. However, in this particular scenario there's no question you need to double up at some point, and sooner is much better than later. Since I'm ahead of his range, I took my shot (and if I'm 60% vs his range, that's fantastic as far as I'm concerned).

I hope someone rescues me in this thread!

Ryan

Elrazor · #13 03-31-2007, 11:20 AM

Im not sure the play is that bad - you are in deep trouble here, as then the blinds go up you will have an 'M' of around 5

the key to whether this play is correct of not is how often he is raising pre flop?? like you said with his proximity to you alot of hands you could steal from the players acting after you are going to be similar range to 66, and from what you have said it seems he is taking alot of your first in equity out of these situations by raising.

my read on this situation is you aint going to qualify by stealing blinds alone as 1) you arnt getting the oppertunity and 2) eventually you are going to run into a premium hand (AK-JJ) where you are going to need to win a flip anyway

i think its a very marginal fold, but if this hand happens with the blinds at 1000/500 its a reluctant call

Sherman · #14 03-31-2007, 11:34 AM

I believe Adanthar's sat. guide suggests that you should shove "any two virtually blind" until you are a big stack. I think that is why this is a fold here.

Beyond on that, your stack is a huge threat to the players behind you, not the guy shoving on you (like an idiot). Just b/c they have almost double your chips doesn't mean your stack can't severly hurt their chances of getting a seat. These are the people you want to shove into. You have a great seat at this table IMO.

ryanghall · #15 03-31-2007, 11:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I believe Adanthar's sat. guide suggests that you should shove "any two virtually blind" until you are a big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Surely this isn't serious.

And again, I'm not getting a chance to open pots because the guy to my right is raising just about anything when folded to him and he's in reasonable position.

Ryan

Sherman · #16 03-31-2007, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe Adanthar's sat. guide suggests that you should shove "any two virtually blind" until you are a big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Surely this isn't serious.

And again, I'm not getting a chance to open pots because the guy to my right is raising just about anything when folded to him and he's in reasonable position.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is serious. Read Andanthar's posts in the anthology.

A quote from Andanthar's updated post:

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say there are 30 players left, the sat pays 25 seats, and stacks range from 8 BB to 50 BB. If the big stacks play optimally, they will sit out. If the medium stacks play optimally, too, they will go all in (into other medium stacks) virtually blind until they're big rather than medium. But even an 8 BB stack is dangerous when he pushes into someone with 15 BB, and if he pushes into a 50 BB stack, the value of time is the only reason to call the push; certainly, $EV wise, the correct play is probably still a fold with any 2. Technically, then, everybody should take turns pushing two cards - never being called except possibly with aces - until the blinds are so high that the extra fraction of a BB lost from calling an all in is meaningless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Foucault · #17 03-31-2007, 12:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A quote from Andanthar's updated post:

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say there are 30 players left, the sat pays 25 seats, and stacks range from 8 BB to 50 BB. If the big stacks play optimally, they will sit out. If the medium stacks play optimally, too, they will go all in (into other medium stacks) virtually blind until they're big rather than medium. But even an 8 BB stack is dangerous when he pushes into someone with 15 BB, and if he pushes into a 50 BB stack, the value of time is the only reason to call the push; certainly, $EV wise, the correct play is probably still a fold with any 2. Technically, then, everybody should take turns pushing two cards - never being called except possibly with aces - until the blinds are so high that the extra fraction of a BB lost from calling an all in is meaningless.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

DDBeast · #18 03-31-2007, 12:31 PM

lol

DDBeast · #19 03-31-2007, 12:35 PM

At first glance it looks like a standard fold, but if the pot is being opened 100% of the time before you get a chance, then this looks like your best shot. Definitely not +EV but the least -EV option if he's really raising that much.

Onyyn · #20 03-31-2007, 12:46 PM

We were railing Ryan when this came up, and I actually tried to talk him into a fold. Statistically speaking, he's much more likely to encounter two overcards than any other hand. The stack situation sucked, and he'd be in trouble very quickly if he didn't play this hand, but knowing it was very likely a 52/48, I felt like a better spot would likely be coming up.

As he mentioned, teacup was taking away any steal chance he had at the time. He had been 3x raising him previously, but Ryan had shoved on him at least twice in the last three orbits prior to this, and tea had begun shoving to take that move away from him.

I don't totally hate the call, and it obviously worked out. I just feel like prize structure really had me leaning towards a fold here.

For what it's worth, there were several other plays by the other players during the final 8 that were bigger head-scratchers than this one. When Ryan says 'taking into account skill,' I think he's being fair. Even just observing that hand sample, I feel comfortable saying he was better than at least three of the eight players, if not more.