Do you win at 6/12 at the Bay 101?

[pig4bill]

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Of course people beat the game.

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I don't know that this is true. I think anybody good enough to beat this game quickly moves up. I'm becoming convinced it's near impossible to beat 6/12 or lower for any sort of recognizable long-term profit in the Bay area because of the drop, the charges for food and drink, the tips, and the higher percentage of local nits compared to more tourist-heavy room. I've stopped playing entirely and am focusing online to build a bankroll big enough to jump in at 15/30.

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Is there someplace that has 15/30 locally?

[DeepCroak]

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Thanks - it is specific because of the $4 rake and the $1 tip. Las Vegas has a better rake structure. If I played at Bellagio 4/8 I would be a winner. But in CA the rake is actually a drop of $4 when there is a flop no matter how big the pot is. That is a huge percentage of many pots.

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In Vega$ the rake gets to $4 when the pot reaches, what, $40? Many (most?) 6/12 and 8/16 pots get far bigger than that. If you try to steal the blinds at 8/16 and only the BB defends, you already have a $36 pot (pre-drop) as the flop comes out. (When that happens I mentally thank the SB for paying the drop).

My point is that I don't think the difference in rake/drop structure is significant. At least at 6/12 and above.

[chillrob]

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Of course people beat the game.

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I don't know that this is true. I think anybody good enough to beat this game quickly moves up. I'm becoming convinced it's near impossible to beat 6/12 or lower for any sort of recognizable long-term profit in the Bay area because of the drop, the charges for food and drink, the tips, and the higher percentage of local nits compared to more tourist-heavy room. I've stopped playing entirely and am focusing online to build a bankroll big enough to jump in at 15/30.

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Is there someplace that has 15/30 locally?

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I know at least Artichoke Joe's and the Oaks have 15/30. I assume other area places do as well. I definately think the 6/12 games are beatable though.

[threeducks]

Thanks for the replies guys - I could reply to each but I will make a general reply. My standard deviation at 6/12 at the Bay 101 is $170/hr. This is all years and 375 hours. My loss is currently at $(11.51)/hr. My STDEV is lower this year ($140) since I am playing better. I said sometime -800/+800 but my Standard deviation per session for 6/12 is $308. So 68% of the time it is in that range. Not too laggy just bad post flop play and very unlucky.

I need to take a break and work on my game. I will swear off hold'em for 30 full days and then see how I feel. I am on permaent tilt lately. Today I see them winning with junk cards like 95s, A6o, K2o, 98o, J3s UTG, etc. and I play tight and good cards and still lose. I miss the flop or hit and get beat - you have heard it all. I just can not consistently beat these games partly because I play bad after the flop and I am very unlucky. That causes me to tilt (flop nut straight and lose to a R-R flush, been there and done that, have we?)

After $40 pot the rake is 10% so just play big pots. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I need to figure out a plan of action because I just can not consistenly beat this game.

[threeducks]

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This is where I get to wear my tough love hat - You need to move up so people will respect your raises ;p

Of course people beat the game. sorry to hear your not. Turning to the B&M forum to figure this out is a waste of time IMHO, start working on your game to figure out all the things your doing wrong by spending time in the strategy forums on 2+2 (which i know you already do - just pointing out its part of the plan), watching videos on sites like Deuces Cracked (they do single table limit videos, perfect for your situation), and lasty reading and re-reading Small Stakes Hold'em, How Good is your Limit Hold'em, and Winning in Tough Hold'em Games (this book is like loaded dynamite though, make sure you know how to adjust the strategy accordingly to the table texture found in the 6/12 game). My advice would be to take a month off of playing, only focus on learning and reading for 30 days - then return. Self Improvement!

PS: The VAST majority of players on 2+2 are not winners/suck at poker/etc. This place has a magical "feel good" vibe where people tend to think that by posting here they play good, that couldn't be father from the truth for most. But thats ok, the path to enlightenment is through knowlege of your own ability. First step is accepting you need to work on your game (which it seems you have already done), second step is to figure out why your losing - is it just varience, short term results oriented thinking?

PPS: For what its worth I am stuck for the year, I haven't turned a profit yet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] This is the first time I've ever been in this situation, its about time varience looked down on me unfavorably!

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Thanks TT, I was going to post this in the Small Stakes forum but I wanted advice on the Bay 101. I like playing there. I have 800 hours of play at the Oaks but I am losing there as well. I can only beat small online games. When I go to Vegas I win at the 4/8 games and I win at the 4/8 kill game at Cache Creek.

The 3/6 games in the bay are way too loose for me.

Oh well, work on my game or give up playing hold'em.

Thanks

[pig4bill]

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Thanks for the replies guys - I could reply to each but I will make a general reply. My standard deviation at 6/12 at the Bay 101 is $170/hr. This is all years and 375 hours. My loss is currently at $(11.51)/hr. My STDEV is lower this year ($140) since I am playing better. I said sometime -800/+800 but my Standard deviation per session for 6/12 is $308. So 68% of the time it is in that range. Not too laggy just bad post flop play and very unlucky.


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Holy crap, $140 an hour! You are unlucky. Or crazy LAGgy. Or both.

[threeducks]

Standard Deviation is about 11-12 BB/hr in a normal game according to several pros that I asked. So 140/12=11.6. it means that 68% of the time I win or lose $140 an hour. You have never won $140 in an hour? That is called variance.

BTW, I think that I am very unlucky - I am pretty tight by comparison. I play 20-25% of the hands dealt (online 21%).

[kkcountry]

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I've stopped playing entirely and am focusing online to build a bankroll big enough to jump in at 15/30.

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I'm in a similar situation. I'm (barely) rolled to play 3/6 to 5/10, but moving up just through live play is a daunting task. My (expected) live hourly rate at 3/6 to 5/10 is nowhere near my (actual) online hourly at the moment, and they won't compare until i can play 15/30 or so.

[pig4bill]

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Standard Deviation is about 11-12 BB/hr in a normal game according to several pros that I asked. So 140/12=11.6. it means that 68% of the time I win or lose $140 an hour. You have never won $140 in an hour? That is called variance.

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I have. But I don't AVERAGE that much win or loss.

[*TT*]

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When I go to Vegas I win at the 4/8 games and I win at the 4/8 kill game at Cache Creek.

The 3/6 games in the bay are way too loose for me.

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I don't believe you, let me explain why. Unless you have a few thousand hours under your belt you have no idea if your wining in Vegas 4/8 games, or losing in the 6/12 Bay 101 games (and even then your not even close to showing a statistical mean yet, but your getting closer to the truth by having a minimum of that many hours under your belt). Mason Malmuth's Gambling Theory & Other Topics discusses the concepts behind winrate, bankroll management, risk of ruin, statistical standard deviation, and how to determine if your a "winning player".

When I first started here on 2+2 many people assumed that their win rate would converge around 30k-40k hands. Now that there are players on this forum who have logged millions of hands we see that there are still staticstical fluctuations within ranges far greater than even 500,000 hands! Assuming your getting 40 hands/hour live thats the equivalent of 12,500 hours logged in a B&M card room! No wonder why online players are usually better than live-only players, they see so many more situations and develop a card-sense that is intuitive quicker than a live player ever could.

In short - hang tight. It sounds like your using weighted results to determine if your a winning player or not, this is a classic example of the gamblers falicy. Of course I still recommend you take a month off as previously discussed to work on your game, but at least no you know that your probably misrepresenting the probability that your a winning player. On the bright side you have the worlds greatest poker resource - 2+2 to help make you a better player!

PS: Have you thought of hiring a coach? Personally I'd use video coaching first to build up your roll before hiring a live coach but I think thats a viable option when the time is right.