Prop Bet Update: ZJ Throws In The Towel

[El Diablo]

ZJ,

'The strongest statement I have made is something along the lines of "The plan at this point is to play as many events in 2007 as possible."'

Actually, you wrote this, which is what prompted the prop betting: "The plan at this point is to play as many events as possible in 2007, and try to win Cardplayer’s Player of the Year. It will take a little bit of luck, but I like my chances a lot. Expect me to make AT LEAST top ten in 2007 for sure."

And the fact that you just now write "I still have at least a 4% chance of winning PoY" is hilarious. Please explain how you come up with that figure.

[ZeeJustin]

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Expect me to make AT LEAST top ten in 2007 for sure.

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Oops [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Still have a decent shot at it though. Let's see how Bellagio + WSOP go.

[Howard Treesong]

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I can't decide if the humility in the last sentence overwhelms the paranoia of the second paragraph or the reverse.

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I'm surprised you are reading that statement as humility. It's just blatantly obvious that I'm an underdog against the 3 best players in the world.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I do read it that way: I was indeed being genuine. I'm not at all sure that you're a dog to Nam, and my handicapping on the quality of your analysis puts you in the same general category as Mike and JCT. I thought I was getting the best of this bet on whether you were willing and able to bring your A game all year. The Grinder and JCT have shown their ability to do just that, whereas you were (and are) a cipher.

[MicroBob]

I'm seeing another prop-bet about Zee's 4% chances with 25:1 pay-out.

[Howard Treesong]

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And BTW, I don't really like the title of this post.

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Well, the El D forum encourages provocative thread titles. It is in any event defensible: see below.

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The strongest statement I have made is something along the lines of "The plan at this point is to play as many events in 2007 as possible."

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition to the top-ten for sure quote El D picked out, I'll add:

I am Justin Bonomo! Hear me Roar!"

and

Be forewarned: Justin Bonomo is going to take the tournament circuit by storm in 2007.

Both are amusing in their references to The Crew and Helen Reddy, and I took them kind of that way. But they're pretty damn strong, sir.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not entirely out of the race. I still have at least a 4% chance of winning PoY even without playing everything given the nature of luck in tournament poker, and the value of WSOP tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is Hellmuthian math, and to back up my statement, I will lay you 25:1 against your $1K right now on that proposition. I hesitate to do this because of the motivation it provides you, but I'll suck it up and make the offer anyway.

[Howard Treesong]

I was typing out my reply as you posted there, Kreskin.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that is Hellmuthian math, and to back up my statement, I will lay you 25:1 against your $1K right now on that proposition. I hesitate to do this because of the motivation it provides you, but I'll suck it up and make the offer anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Done if you are willing to send the 25k to someone like El Diablo right now so that I know I will get paid.

Edit: I'll send the 1k too of course.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that is Hellmuthian math, and to back up my statement, I will lay you 25:1 against your $1K right now on that proposition. I hesitate to do this because of the motivation it provides you, but I'll suck it up and make the offer anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Done if you are willing to send the 25k to someone like El Diablo right now so that I know I will get paid.

Edit: I'll send the 1k too of course.

[/ QUOTE ]
Could this be the first "I will take that bet!" sort of post to actually go through on 2+2? Let us gogogogogogogo.

[MicroBob]

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I was typing out my reply as you posted there, Kreskin.

[/ QUOTE ]


AWESOME!

[Howard Treesong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that is Hellmuthian math, and to back up my statement, I will lay you 25:1 against your $1K right now on that proposition. I hesitate to do this because of the motivation it provides you, but I'll suck it up and make the offer anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Done if you are willing to send the 25k to someone like El Diablo right now so that I know I will get paid.

Edit: I'll send the 1k too of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've PMed El D to see if he is a willing escrow agent. So we're dead clear, I'm laying you 25 to 1 on $1K. You win if you finish first in the 2007 CardPlayer POY race. I win otherwise.

BTW, I realize I'm handicapping your chances at a little less than 4% here, but that's to compensate you for the insult to your math skillz.