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Old 10-18-2006, 09:49 PM
CLB CLB is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Breaking even at $200NL
Posts: 164
Default Re: Flopped top 2 after being CRed preflop

OK, at this point I'm having a running conversation with myself, but none the less...

Apparently I WAS overvalueing the fact that there are only two QQ/KK hands possible. I just ran the numbers in PokerStove and came up with:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,920 games 0.005 secs 1,584,000 games/sec

Board: Ts Qs Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.9192 % 46.22% 00.69% { KhQc }
Hand 2: 53.0808 % 52.39% 00.69% { QQ+ }

This is the tightest reasonable range, but I would have thought that I would have been better than 47% here. I think I'm missing something in regards to the 1 QQ + 1 KK vs. 6 AA hands math...anyone got any suggestions?
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  #2  
Old 10-18-2006, 11:34 AM
CLB CLB is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Breaking even at $200NL
Posts: 164
Default Re: Flopped top 2 after being CRed preflop

I'll gladly concede that I shouldn't have called PR. At the time I conviced myself that he was tired of me raising and wanted to keep me in line.

On the flop, I'm surprised that more people don't agree with KdB:

[ QUOTE ]
A limp rr and a minraise both mean a very strong hand imo. If his range is QQ(1) KK (1) AA(6) and AK(8) we're behind 2 of those hands and ahead of 14(!). And when we're ahead it is highly likely he likes his hand with an overpair or TPTK.

In one of those situations, when he has AsKs, he's got a reasonable chance to draw out on us, but the other 13 hands could only improve with the last 2 or 3 aces.

I would just call, he'll probably hang himself on the turn and he might lay down his hand if we push right now.

If he flopped a set so be it, but I'll be glad to play for stacks here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I narrowed his range down to QQ-AA. I didn't really consider AK as a possible holding...I don't think you see many players limp-raise AK pf. AJ also seemed unlikely. Didn't really take the flush draw into account.

Just based on the fact that 2 Qs and 2 Ks are exposed to me, AA becomes the hand that he most likely has. Only 1 combo each of Qs and Ks for 2 hands that dominate me vs. 6 combos of As that I'm way ahead of.

Since the board was so drawy, I thought I might not be able to get much more out of him if another broadway or spade hit.

I pushed...he called. QQ, I lose. No biggie, I'd feel alot worse if I thought that my flop play was poor but I still feel like my read/line was pretty sound. Most of you seem to disagree - am I overvaluing the fact that there are only 2 possible QQ/KK hands out there?
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