Middle pair, ass end & BDFD . . . dump it? - Page 2

marchron · #1 10-24-2007, 11:20 PM

Huh. Maybe I'm getting weak-tight in my old age. I was seriously considering folding here simply because I wasn't in love with any of my outs: A four wrecks my hand, an eight isn't much better, threes and sixes are nice but I face pretty yucky RIO even if they help.

I changed my mind based on the attractive pot odds, but also because I had optimal relative position on the likely turn bettor. So I peeled, then of course this disaster happens:

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: marchron is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, marchron checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, marchron checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, SB calls, marchron calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, marchron checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, SB calls, marchron . . .

Ick. What do I do now, since I'm not closing the action?

Bulletproof Monk · #2 10-24-2007, 11:23 PM

CALLS!

Aaron W. · #3 10-24-2007, 11:23 PM

Easy muck on the turn getting 4.5:1 and with more potential action.

marchron · #4 10-25-2007, 03:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy muck on the turn getting 4.5:1 and with more potential action.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? Even with 9 probable outs and potentially 12? Or does the sudden turn donkraise convince you that some of our outs are dead?

Aaron W. · #5 10-25-2007, 02:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy muck on the turn getting 4.5:1 and with more potential action.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? Even with 9 probable outs and potentially 12? Or does the sudden turn donkraise convince you that some of our outs are dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop call -> turn raise is very scary on this board because it means you're probably behind a pretty big hand. The coldcall is bad because it means that some of your outs are either tainted or held by your opponent. Optimistically, I'd give you 8-10 outs here, but really I'd look at this and suggest 6-8 outs is much more reasonable.

And when it's otherwise close, call for one and fold for two.

marchron · #6 10-25-2007, 03:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy muck on the turn getting 4.5:1 and with more potential action.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? Even with 9 probable outs and potentially 12? Or does the sudden turn donkraise convince you that some of our outs are dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop call -> turn raise is very scary on this board because it means you're probably behind a pretty big hand. The coldcall is bad because it means that some of your outs are either tainted or held by your opponent. Optimistically, I'd give you 8-10 outs here, but really I'd look at this and suggest 6-8 outs is much more reasonable.

And when it's otherwise close, call for one and fold for two.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't think my flush outs are good? I don't think anyone's donking it up with a flush draw here, though the SB playing call-a-lot is worrisome. But what diamond draw could he possibly have that would call the flop bet? 8x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 9x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and that's about it.

I think all my flush outs are always good, which gives us an eight-out minimum. (It would be nine, but 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] could boat someone up, so I'll throw it out.) Add up all the fractions of outs from whatever else and I think 8-10 is more than reasonable.

As played, how do you handle this river?

Aaron W. · #7 10-25-2007, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call on the turn getting 4.5:1 and despite the worry of more potential action.

[/ QUOTE ]

FMP.

KitCloudkicker · #8 10-26-2007, 03:58 PM

grunch

fold river after the raise

/end grunch

BadBigBabar · #9 10-26-2007, 10:11 PM

fold rivar
good thread

marchron · #10 10-25-2007, 02:47 PM

I should listen to Aaron more . . .

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: marchron is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, marchron checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, marchron checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, SB calls, marchron calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, marchron checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, SB calls, marchron calls, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls, SB calls, marchron calls.

River: (16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, marchron . . .

I'm fairly convinced now that UTG has AA/KK, and now I beat it. MP2 still worries me, but his non-cap on the turn signals to me that I may have him, too. What's my play? LOLOLOL I JUST BACKDOORED A PLAYALONG AND BOZ DIDN'T STOP ME HAHAHAHAHA