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#11
10-02-2006, 11:59 PM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
betting huge ML faves is a great idea until you lose 2 or 3 in a row and then your blow your whole bankroll.
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#12
10-03-2006, 12:00 AM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
Is anybody paying attention to what I write? 2 or 3 losses will not wipe me out. It would take a dozen or so.
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#13
10-03-2006, 12:03 AM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
[ QUOTE ]
Is anybody paying attention to what I write? 2 or 3 losses will not wipe me out. It would take a dozen or so. [/ QUOTE ] Are you paying attention? Blindly betting large favorites is -ev. And -ev is -ev no matter how you spread your bets.
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#14
10-03-2006, 12:05 AM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
Could line shopping make this +ev? I could have gotten the COlts at -900 this morning after all.
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#15
10-03-2006, 12:08 AM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
We just had a thread the other week about the huge ML favourites in college football (-5000 or more). It turned out the record over the last few seasons was 256-1 or something like that, which is pretty good going for the favourites. Would only take one or two games gone wrong to get some incredible variance tho.
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#16
10-03-2006, 12:19 AM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
I was thinking more like -750 to -2000 with heavy line shopping and watching moving lines.
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#17
10-03-2006, 12:47 AM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
[ QUOTE ]
Could line shopping make this +ev? I could have gotten the COlts at -900 this morning after all. [/ QUOTE ] Are you sure it was -900 and not -1900? I'm not calling you a liar, I'm just saying that the spread has always been from -17.5 to -19.5. And the spread/ML odds are usually correlated. Maybe you just saw it wrong. Either way. If you're just gonna line shop the favorites, that's no different than regualr line shopping. Sure, if you find lines that are good, it becomes +ev, but that's true for any bet.
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#18
10-03-2006, 12:51 AM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
Would there be any logic to tying the spread to the moneyline to gauge how bad the moneyline is? for example, the Bears are -11 on the spread and -650 ML....but the spread on the Iowa Purdue game is Iowa -11 and the ML is Iowa -450. Big difference. Any logic to this at all?
Should I only compare college to college and not criss cross with the NFL?
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#20
10-03-2006, 12:52 AM
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Re: Rip my logic cause I\'m a newbie
I saw the colts -900 on sbr this morning and thought that couldnt be right, so i went to bet365 and the odds there were 1.01 or close. Can anybody back me up on this one?
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