Lead, C/R or CC this multi way pot OOP?

[OrrLives]

In the heat of multi-table batter, I probably call the river. But doing the analysis, I don't know if it is an easy call. One player probably has a set and there is also probably at least another straight and/or flush draw (which takes away some of your outs).

First the math:
There is 58 + 10x3 = 88 in the main pot
68+68 = 136 in first side pot
12 in second side pot
Total = 88+136+12 = 236
You need to call 90

Odds: 236:90 ~ 2.6:1 so you need ~1/4 equity to call the main pot but ~1/3 equity to call for the large side pots.

For simplicity, I will ignore the main pot and only look at the big side pots where you are getting ~2-1 on your call.

It seems that you are up against at least one set and probably a flush and/or straight draw too. This really hurts your equity.


Against top set, weaker flush draw and a couple straight draws, you it is a toss up (if you consider the main pot).
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 6c Ad 6d 169 25.38 451 67.72 46 6.91 0.288
7c 7d 5d 6h 351 52.70 269 40.39 46 6.91 0.561
4c 2c Ah 5h 100 15.02 564 84.68 2 0.30 0.151


Against a large wrap, weaker flush draw, and two pair, it is again a toss-up.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 6c Ad 6d 158 23.72 446 66.97 62 9.31 0.284
Ac 4c 5d 6h 112 16.82 492 73.87 62 9.31 0.215
7c 3c Kd Qd 334 50.15 332 49.85 0 0.00 0.502


Worst case: Against top set, two weaker flush draws and two other straight draws, you may want to fold.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 6c Ad 6d 168 25.23 492 73.87 6 0.90 0.257
7c 7d 4d 6h 413 62.01 247 37.09 6 0.90 0.625
Kd 5d Ah 4h 77 11.56 585 87.84 4 0.60 0.119


Better case: against two sets, no flush draw, no other straight draw you have a lot of equity.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 6c Ad 6d 242 36.34 424 63.66 0 0.00 0.363
7c 8d 7d Th 352 52.85 314 47.15 0 0.00 0.529
7s 3c 4h 3h 72 10.81 594 89.19 0 0.00 0.108

[Flip-Flop]

Deep analysis aside when you multi tabing you need to do quick decisions and for me this hand really comes down to if I do or don`t mind a little bit of gambling.

Reads are crucial and they help of course but no matter how I look at it this hand is a close call.
Sometimes I call this sometimes I don`t, depends on my mood.

[Big Dave D]

I'm allin.

gl

bdd

[OrrLives]

[ QUOTE ]
Deep analysis aside when you multi tabing you need to do quick decisions and for me this hand really comes down to if I do or don`t mind a little bit of gambling.

Reads are crucial and they help of course but no matter how I look at it this hand is a close call.
Sometimes I call this sometimes I don`t, depends on my mood.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it is impossible to do this analysis while playing, but it is important to recognize that situations such as this (which are not THAT rare) are perhaps -EV.

I completely agree that reads are crucial. If I was against a LAG-tard and a calling station, I easily call this. Against a fairly straight-forward player pushing allin and a caller (which probably means he has some sort of draw), I would lean toward folding.

[Elrazor]

this spot is enturely read dependant - if you think Kpik is capable of making this move with something like KKxx w/d then you have to gamble, if he had an agression factor of like 1.5 i probably fold, but im really looking for any reason to get my money in here

[holdemsucks]

If the BB is going to go all-in with his last $10, call him.
As for pre-flop, with no reads I would have folded.

[sqwisssssss]

easy lead out.

i bet out maximum. your holding an ace and two 6's which help block the only other draws that can continue. also, there is a decent chance that bb has aces which takes away anyone outs for an open ender. theres only one hand you have to woory about and thats a set of 7's. they'll raise you and you gladly stack off.

personally, i really think your going to be heads up with shorty when you lead out. i doubt anyone else is going to come along for the ride.

bet out maximum.

[sqwisssssss]

i just read the responses.

i cant see a check here. thats bad poker in my opinion. i want to put others to a decision for the rest of their chips......not the other way around.

your playing reactive poker with a hand that should be played aggressively on that flop.

[chucky]

[ QUOTE ]
i just read the responses.

i cant see a check here. thats bad poker in my opinion. i want to put others to a decision for the rest of their chips......not the other way around.

your playing reactive poker with a hand that should be played aggressively on that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many people are advocating check-raising the flop because that gets the maximum money in the pot. BB can't do anything other than shove the flop, so c/r takes maximum advantage of this fact. This flop illustrates the importance of noticing the size of your opponents' stacks.

[OrrLives]

[ QUOTE ]
i just read the responses.

i cant see a check here. thats bad poker in my opinion. i want to put others to a decision for the rest of their chips......not the other way around.

your playing reactive poker with a hand that should be played aggressively on that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check, the shortstack shoves and you get a couple callers, you can then come over the top with a hand that probably has a ton of equity. You might even get one of the other callers to fold (mmmmm... dead moniez).