NL 100: Whats my play here with a set

[Poolgod32]

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Definitely c-c this turn. IF board pairs on river then lead out. Otherwise check and evauluate if he bets into you.

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Umm...
His turn bet put me allin so I cannot lead out the river

[badbluff]

Hmmm...given the chance to think about this, and knowing Villain bets a large range of hands (28% raised pf?), no turn is "safe" except a 4. If you want to isolate Villain, wouldn't that best be done preflop? Otherwise, I'm folding the pair on the flop, simply because it is very likely Villain will come after me on the turn and I will almost certainly not know what to do (i.e., I think there will be better opportunities to take Villain's money).

I am open to other thoughts on this...

[Poolgod32]

Here is my follow up question. Lets say for the sake of argument that Villain has a 4 or two 4s ...whatever. He has a straight. I have a set with a redraw (10outs to fill up).
I am a 3 to 1 dog

Im getting 2.28 to 1 on the call so its a -EV call if I put him on exactly a 4

My question is how do you go about putting him on exaclty that hand? This guy had proven hisself to be anything but a nut peddler so its logical to assume that while he might have a 4 alot of the time sometimes he will have other holdings. For instance, 53, A6, A5, any 2 big hearts, and finally 22, 33, 55.

How would you guys go about assigning these ranges in a case such as this?

Does the possibility of these other hands (no matter how slight) make this a call or fold ?Thoughts?

[Vee Quiva]

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Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $53.07
CO: $605.01
Button: $100.40
Hero: $117.45
BB: $35

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $2</font>, CO calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($7, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG folds, CO calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($17, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises all-in $598.01</font>,

Villain is 48/28 and willing to gamble

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Possible hands for villian?
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4-4
a random 4
Over pair
trip 2's
trip 3's
trip 5's
two pair

If opponent has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] we lose the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as an out so we have 9 outs. If opponent has a non heart 4 then we have 10 outs.

Let me know if I am thinking about this correctly:
Let x = the percent of times we are ahead in the hand right now.

So we need to call $78 to win $125.

Can I multiply X by (times we are ahead and win +times we are ahead and lose) then add (1-X)multiplied by (times we are behind and win + times we are behind and lose).

Can I set these equations to 0 to solve for what % of the time we need to be ahead in this hand to make the call profitable?

[PokerintheI]

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your play is fine, i dont see how you can get away from this hand, i have to put your opponent on high pocket pairs... or unluckly he has 44, or A4

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O RLY? this is clearly "put him on a hand we beat so we can call."

i'm not sure how i feel about a turn bet here...we're turning our set into a bluff.

pretty sure calling this is suicidal, but i suppose he doesn't have to have two pair/set/flush draw/weak overpair THAT often to make this call neutral after we've dumped 20-something dollars into the pot.

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Are you playing the same game and opponents that I do? I would not write off the possiblity that villain has 44 or A4, but I'm certainly not going to assume it. Villain is the big stack, and apparently is bullying the table. I have no problem imagining him making this bet with Ah2h, any 2 pair,22, 33, 55, 77, or even 2 broadway hearts. Worst possible scenario is 4x. And even if we assume that possibility, we have either 10 outs to win and either 2 or 3 to tie.

I'm going to give the highest possible probibility to villain having A4, because I think 24, 34, 44 and 54 raise the flop.

I think that given the situation, the villain's stats, and a 28% chance to win or split if we are beaten, and the fact that we would really really like to get deeper vs this villain. I'm going to call.