$60 L1 88 flops overpair/gutshot vs lag

[sonneti]

If he's raising 25% early isnt his range something like 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,T9s,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo? I push the flop here, you'll see him table junk quite a lot & folding out sheepishly often aswell.. anyways in worst case we have 6 outs [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[DevinLake]

I'd still like reads to go with his stats. 40/25 doesn't mean he raises over limpers a lot and c-bets multiway a lot. But, with the gut shot and back door flush draw I would seriously consider shoving.

But folding is safe.

[Q..]

Interesting spot, i think you should remember how he bet other flops since with his vpip he must have seen a lot of them. If he bets strong when he hits its a fold, otherwise its a clear push, or call if you like. Without that information just fold is safe and good. Its worth a discussion i think since we might have 75%+ (AK, A6) to stack a guy, so if its analyzed and played well it can be much more profitable then some late game push with.

[sippin_criss]

77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777 77777777777

[robertsonjohn]

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if he's 45/25 in the early game i'm sorely tempted to shove when it gets back to me to close the action preflop.

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You want to push 1420 chips into a pot of 300 after limping behind 2 limpers? Really? Against a LAG who doesn't mind racing and who shouldn't have any trouble reading your mid-pair hand for what it is - meaning he's calling with any big pair and any 2 high cards, giving him by far the best of it?

[ger664]

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if he's 45/25 in the early game i'm sorely tempted to shove when it gets back to me to close the action preflop.

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You want to push 1420 chips into a pot of 300 after limping behind 2 limpers? Really? Against a LAG who doesn't mind racing and who shouldn't have any trouble reading your mid-pair hand for what it is - meaning he's calling with any big pair and any 2 high cards, giving him by far the best of it?

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Against villians likely range + dead monies in the pot its not bad to be racing here plus you do have a small degree of FE. Not my prefered line but there is nothing wrong with it either.

[robertsonjohn]

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Against villians likely range + dead monies in the pot its not bad to be racing here plus you do have a small degree of FE. Not my prefered line but there is nothing wrong with it either.

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You're 40/60 against 99+ATs+KQo+AJo+ which is a relatively fair estimate for calling this overpush. Which means you're putting all of your chips in the middle as a dog on the second hand of the tournament because your sample size of 38 hands says he's loose. No thanks.

Even you expand his calling range to superwide, you're going to get yourself down to around 47/53 which is OK if you think the other players are better than you. But if you think all the players are better than you by the second hand, you probably shouldn't have entered the tournament to begin with.