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Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
You can bet on Miami to NOT go 0-16 on 5Dimes at -700. I think this prop is massively EV.
Here's Miami's schedule. The lines for the first 3 games are already available. For all of the other lines, I have put my estimated lines in paranthesis. I have shaded the estimated lines against Miami in order to be conservative in my estimates. I actually think they should fare much better against NYJ (they should be favored), Bal (still over rated by the linesmakers) and Cin, but I want to err on the side of caution. Buf +3 at Phi +9 at Pit +17 NYJ (0) at Buf (+9) Bal (+3) at NE (+24) Cin (+4) Now let's put a conservative chance of winning to go along with those spreads. Buf +3 42% (58% chance to lose) at Phi +9 19% (81%) at Pit +17 6% (94%) NYJ (0) 50% (50%) at Buf (+9) 19% (81%) Bal (+3) 42% (58%) at NE (+24) 2% (98%) Cin (+4) 34% (66%) This would give them only a 6.7% chance of losing every game. Let's use more conservative numbers: Buf +3 40% (60% chance to lose) at Phi +9 17% (83%) at Pit +17 5% (95%) NYJ (+3) 40% (60%) at Buf (+9) 17% (83%) Bal (+3) 38% (62%) at NE (+24) 2% (98%) Cin (+6) 30% (70%) Now we come up with 10.0% (90% to win the bet). At -700, we need to win 87.5% of the time. I think this bet will be a winner greater than 90% of the time (more like 94-96% IMO). -700 looks like a great price. The max bet is $1750 to win $250. I also want to reiterate that I actually think they have a good chance of beating NYJ, Bal or Cin at home. They could be favored by as much as 3 over the Jets, and could easily be pick 'em against Bal or Cin. The estimates I gave are more in line with what I would expect from the linesmakers, and are also meant to be conservative. |
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