Live AK hand, flop decision. 3/5 NL

[jlocdog]

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Kind of funny how 2p2 is advocating getting the money in with a draw when we are being offered no pot odds of any kind. Didn't know a one card flush draw and a gutshot was such an amazing holding. Granted, he usually doesn't have a flush here, so we're almost always drawing to 12 outs, and maybe more as far as pairing one of our holecards, but we're never in GREAT shape.

For those of you who think that people coming in behind us is great, what hands do you think are overcalling that are good for us? Would it be fair to say that just about all overcalls after you shove will be comprised of sets/flushes?

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Ye i thgt the same, I mean even if i was HU in position i would mostlikly fold this, the pot ods are not correct.. but if u want meta game? i dunno... (im not sre what kinda meta game would apply..but id fold it)

Alternativly if u WANT the others to call, make a speech like, i got the A of spades i call.. so other ppl behind u mite overcall with pairs... or is this very shady? i dont play live much,,


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Generalizing 'one card flush draws and gutshot straight draws' is not good. This draw is not the run of the mill weak sauce draw.

-ALL draws are to the nuts...a plus.
-We will ALWAYS have live outs regardless of what anybody has...a plus.
-Having people to act behind allows are call to give THEM odds to draw which in turn gives us OUR odds...a plus.
-We will have as few as 7 outs always and as many as 18 outs TWICE giving us anywhere from 30% to 60% equity...a plus.
-The meta implications this may have with live monkeys could be only good...a plus.

Overall, if you fold it would be due to being adverse to variance. Understandable I guess. But with all the pluses going for you, this seems like a good spot as any to mix it up with the monkeys without being a nut peddler.

[fearless2k]

Yes what u say makes sense, but we have 30$ invested so far. is our equity sufficiant to put the rest of our stack in? i would say most times here (90%+) a lot of ur outs are counterfit.

The only real outs i would feel comfortable would be the flush card and MAYBE the Q as smaller flush i imagine would check Raise AI. The A or K is either up agisnst floped set/2pair/strght/flush or make the opponant 2 pair.
I dnno thou, i persannly fold this. but call aint that bad i guess

lol and GG for when he has the stright flush.. but i think that is v unlikly given action :P lol

[jlocdog]

Don't view this as 'what we have invested'. View it as 'what is my equity + meta implications right now'.

If there is ever a draw to chase, this would be it with all nut draws and overcards. EP could just have gotten antsy with TPTK and wanting to 'protect his hand'. Your call may actually fold two pair (not far fetched given bet size and relative position with this textured board), allowing your A/K/both to be live.

Also we are talking about ~70BB! Don't think I am ever folding a nut draw for that few bets getting even a dime over 1-1. The fact that we have the possibility to make 3+ to 1 on our money makes a shove a no brainer in my book.

[FireStorm]

I cannot for the life of me understand the above analysis. Your call is going to fold two pair behind you, but induce a call from a draw? How can this even be possible, what draw is someone going to call off 300 with behind us? You really can't be serious that you anticipate folding out JT but getting called by Qs9c.

Also it would be pretty tough for both our A AND K to be live, you would need to get it heads up with UTG shoving QJ or worse.

Seems a bit ridiculous to me to call based on currently non-existent pot odds simply because 2p2 tells you that live players suck and thus someone HAS to come in behind you, but with a worse holding.

[FBP]

I call it.
We're ahead of KQ/Q9, and our hand will gamble well whatever happens or we're faced.
1.3:1 means we only need like 40% equity right? I can't see us not having this against this guy's range.

[Yeti]

if you fold this you must not like to have fun

callcallcall

[jlocdog]

Firestorm,

Don't take what I say out of context. My post was not one big argument for calling. Maybe I wasn't clear on that with the way I presented it. Instead take each sentence as a possibility or reason calling may be good. Add them all up and it should feel overwhelming that a call is the right play.

I don't expect you to always fold 2purr but have a weak FD come along. But it is possible. It is after all two different monkeys, holding two different cards, making two different decisions, playing two different games, with two different points of view on what may be optimal for them.

Also, when I write A/K/both, that means one of the two or maybe both....not all always. And just because pot odds aren't prevalent doesn't always make calling bad. We have the prospect of pot odds with 2 players behind us. One of which only has $170 which would make a side pot for us allowing us to have proper odds (and in theory giving us a chance to win with the second best hand).

Lastly, I will repeat, we have 70BB. Folding a nut/nut/possible over card out draw with that little money in front of me just won't happen. If we were deeper, I may have scaled back some enthusiasm, but with the situation as is, I cannot see a fold from my end ever.

2+2 isn't telling me anything. I wrote my own post. And I am primarily a live player so I don't need anyone to tell me how big of monkeys they are. I know myself.

[DVO]

Thanks for the replies.

I did call, and got a call behind me from schmendrick for another $170.

Villain had T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Schmendrick had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( wow)

turn paired the board (J) and I was dead.

[jlocdog]

Wow, I guess firestorm was right all along. Shoulda folded dude.

[FireStorm]

Result doesn't make me right or wrong, the fact that the guy flopped a set of 10's this particular instance doesn't matter. What's relevant is the hand ranges you will be facing and how you fare against these overall. Many of the posters in this thread are giving very wide ranges to both the shoving player, and the potential callers behind. My range for these players isn't as wide, and thus I am advocating a fold.

Schmendrick should NEVER be calling with his hand, and as it is, AxQs is one of the very few drawing hands that could even possibly come in behind us (Ks9x, AxQs, Qs9x).

LocDog, the 2p2 verbal slam actually wasn't directed at you, simply commenting on the overwhelming 2p2 obsession with insisting that online players are gods while all live players suck. While many monkeys do exist in casinos, it is really a stretch to suggest that naked flush draws will come into the pot as the third all in player with any frequency.