pot odds question

[7stud]

Thanks HoneyBadger and Nick Royale.

I included choice b) because it's a similar calculation to one on p.48 of TOP in a discussion on effective odds:

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Well, if I miss my hand, I lose $10 on this round of betting and $20 on the next round. In all, I lose $30. If I make my hand, I will win the $30 in there now plus $20 on the next round for a total of $50...all of a sudden you're getting only 50-to-30 odds...

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After reading your replies, I am wondering if doing expected value calculations while figuring out pot odds is the wrong approach(although your answers precisely fit the definition of implied odds I posted)?

When you are drawing for the nuts, you have a 100% chance of winning the hand if you hit, so you can exclude your $20 call on 5th street from any odds calculations. However, if you only have a 99.9% chance of winning when you hit your hand, should the whole $20 you call on 5th street be included in the calculation as in choice b)?

Or, is it that whenever you don't have a draw to the nuts you have to engage in expected value calculations?

[HoneyBadger]

Yes, you are including it, only the chance of loosing it if you have the nuts is 0%. So the calculation becomes:

$100 * 1.0 -$20 * 0.0 = $100 expected win.

If you only have 99.9% it becomes:

$100 * 0.999 -$20 * 0.001 = $99.88

[7stud]

Ok. Thanks.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. Thanks.

So, do reverse implied odds occur when this portion of the calculation:

expected return = $80(.8) + $20(.8) - $20(.2)

becomes negative?

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Generally you don't call with a draw you're not a more than 50% favorite to win when hit. The pot has to be huge and in that case losing a fraction of the last bet going in won't matter much.

But if you have 2nd pair on the turn and your chance of being ahead is about 3:1 and you get 4:1 on a turn call but just 5:2 on a calldown a similar problem occurs. When this is the case you should be looking att the effective odds of a call down, in this case 5:2 unless you have a decent chance of improving. With 2nd pair you might very well have outs to cover for a call down though.