#11
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Re: NL25 - 78s
If you just call, are you going to c/f turn? Your equity drops significantly there. This isnt about FE, as Im sure there is barely any. Its about the equity of your hand right now, we are supposed to take any equity edge we have in ring games. And there is some benefit to MP folding if he does though. Then there is dead money in the pot which also helps our equity here more.
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#12
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Re: NL25 - 78s
I think the keys here are what is the % fold for UTG, what will his action be on the turn if we whiff, and how often can he get away if we hit.
I think he folds here ~50% and that is probably the main difference in our lines. No reads so the rest of it is just guessing what he does on average. If I call flop I may c/f turn...if he pushes or pots it (same thing really) but he'll only do that a % of the time. I don't think there's likely to be a big EV difference in the 2 lines...but I do dislike the "consensus" of a standard line with no thought to the alternatives. If we were in position on UTG this would be a clear call though IMO. |
#13
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Re: NL25 - 78s
I gave thought to the alternative, I dont just post because I like the majority. I just felt the difference in equity is made up by the dead money, and I absolutely hate check/folding with this hand. It is true here that we have to guess what villains do here, but like I said, I feel if MP folds here like ever, then this becomes a much clearer push. The difference probably is negligible though. The reason why there is a standard line though is because even against a fair range for villains, we are ahead.
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#14
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Re: NL25 - 78s
I also considered just calling the raise, but I figured if I missed the turn, what would be my action be on 4th street? I definitely hate C/f this hand, so I thought I might as well get it all in while I am a favorite or a small underdog against a set.
I am of course not sure whether it is the mathematically correct move, but the difference between the two moves shouldn't be big? |
#15
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Re: NL25 - 78s
completely standard, getting the money in while your ahead. Never call the raise because you have so much equity right now, even if he has a set you are a favorite and then playing turn sux. As played NH
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#16
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Re: NL25 - 78s
This hand is very different than a standard combo draw.
Getting to a whiffed turn is not such a horrible thing and saying you will always have to c/f is wrong. We have no read and this is 25NL so villain will check behind or underbet more often than he will push the turn. We have to hit our draw to have any reasonable chance of winning. This fact doesn't change if UTG calls or folds on the flop. Thus while usually getting villain to fold is a great result with a combo draw, here it only reduces our odds. In addition, this is one of the rare spots where it would be better to call an AI than to be called. The key to playing this hand right is the read on the villain and there is none given. We should be open to both lines though and I still say there is no is no standard line |
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