why are you not massively shorting the dollar?

[john kane]

bump.

the overwhelming majority of posts i read on this finance forum regarding the dollar are saying how the dollar long term is in real trouble. now i know i shouldnt trust strangers views, but in general you all seem very clued up and all seem to pretty much agree.

surely this is a great bet to make? the downside is surely limited given the dollar will not make an incredible turnaround, yet could decline for many month/year(s) to come.

i know i know basically nothing about finance, but when i read so many people saying the dollar will continue to decline, i cannot see why anyone would thus not heavily leverage the dollars decline.

i am planning to leverage as much as i can without risking any serious money (probs most ill risk on short dollar or on gold it real money is $30k)

fwiw, right now:

$60 per $1 on gold
$100 per $1 swing in dollars per £
$100 per 1 yen swing in per $

this has maxed out my £7.5k/$15k i have in my spreadbetting account as i have 15-20% stop losses. i want to deposit probably another $15k and doubling my positions on gold and on yen:dollar, maybe throw in a bit of silver and oil as well.

[kyleb]

I've been long gold and Pounds Sterling for about 5 years now. It's working out alright for me.

[Freakin]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been long gold and Pounds Sterling for about 5 years now. It's working out alright for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
HELL yes

[john kane]

how long do you anticipate it to last?

and nicely done on your returns over the last 5 years, must of been nice [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

it seems like such easy money given how obvious everyone seems to think it is.

[PRE]

John, for once I am with you on an investment decision.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
how long do you anticipate it to last?

and nicely done on your returns over the last 5 years, must of been nice [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

it seems like such easy money given how obvious everyone seems to think it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

My investments in gold coincide with my undergraduate studies in Economics/GT. I felt they were good investments then and I feel the same way now, though I have largely ignored commodities markets in recent history (like most of you, I'm a buy and hold investor). I just recently switched all my ETF's over to Zecco from Firstrade, and I might get more active with zero commission incentives.

I have no short or long-term analysis worth posting about GLD/SLV or EUR/GBP. That is to say, I have my definite feelings and partial research done on them, but I don't like giving out half-assed advice on investing matters.

Good luck with your investments, though! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[donkeykong2]

i think the question is if the fed will finally boost inflation to allow the government and it s citizen too get rid of their debts to foreigners.

[Fishhead24]

The dollar will continue to decay........precisely why I'm pro metals/farmland.........and will be for sometime in all liklihood.

[spider]

Currency bets are best left to the experts as they are essentially a zero sum game. You can be a moron day trader and still come out ahead (if you keep transactions cost somewhat minimized) as the stock market is NOT a zero sum game.

As far as the USD, folks had good reasons to think it might fall and it did (we are talking 25% are so in round numbers). That is really a huge fall for something like the dollar which is still THE world currency when you get down to it. But there are limits on how far it can fall and it's not clear how much farther it should -- lots of people think the euro is over-valued now, for example.

Anyway, I'm not a currency guy and can't predict things, but I will at least note that part of the recent fall is b/c the US economy is weakening and a rate cut was expected and delivered (other things equal, there tends to be an instant drop in a currency in response to that country's interest rate dropping relative to other countries). If Europe and other areas follow the US downturn, the USD could easily rebound against other countries. I'm not predicting, just sayin, keep that kind of stuff in mind.

Bottom line: play blackjack if you like high variance coin flips. You will at least get free drinks out of it.