|
|
#14
11-08-2007, 03:12 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set Mining Math
[ QUOTE ]
i wasted a lot of money on this - and i dont like it because I could have realized earlier [/ QUOTE ] Ah gotcha... well at least you got it now. It's always good to fix leaks... even after 1yr, 5yrs, 20 yrs, whatever. 
|
|
#15
11-08-2007, 06:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Set Mining Math
TT does a little better as a pp vs hands like AK AQ cos it takes away 2 of the outs broadways need to make a straight.
I used to use the 5/10 rule - Now I won't call a preflop raise with a pp 22-99 unless I have AT LEAST TWELVE TIMES the preflop call in possible equity available. Also say a TAG raises in LP you call in EP with your pp. I'd guess 7/10 times you will not get much more than a flop CB from villain. So calling TAGS LP opens with pp's is a leak as well. Not because they don't have the stack there - but they are never getting it all in unless they make 2pair+ or they flop a big draw - you can expect to make 2 bets worth of value if they continue past the flop most of the time. i.e. they might call 2 streets (flop & turn) with TPTK but they are rarely calling that river bigger bet. (at least until they think you are probably bluffing) say Hero is in BB with 66 - TAG OTB raises Hero calls. flop comes A6x - 66% of the time the TAG has missed the flop completely. So Hero checks or donks small - V raises or leads flop. Turn comes and if Hero leads here most of the time villain folds his whiffed hand. Same as if we reraise TAGs flop CB. so we call 4BB preflop make 8-12BB on the flop and thats all she wrote. We make at most 20BB here lots of the time - we called 4BB pre thats 5x the preflop call in value - and thats not nearly enough if we rely on sets alone. Say TAG has AQ on the A6x flop now you'll get another street of value here but at the end of the day you make ~45BB at most in value (and you need to get PSB's flop and turn to get there) 45BB = ~11x the preflop call so our set here has made a *little* but more or less breakeven. The golden flop is where we flop a set and villain has an OP or top two - value town. This just doesn't happen all that often tho. In position I call much more liberally with my pp's going back to the 5/10 rule cos I know that I can use my position oftentimes to control the potsize and if I think villain is weak put a ton of pressure on him and make him make a difficult decision. OOP we can't do that. Have a plan for the rest of the hand when you call - maybe something like "I will c/r TAG whether I flop a set or not and shutdown to resistance on an A high/Khigh flop" - Once you start to win pots without making it to SD and without making the set then your pp's start to make more $. If a well stacked calling station opens then call away with any pp as he IS likely to get his chips in with the worst of it with maybe only TPGK. Try to tailor your plans to each individual situation. Calling open raises with any pp on autopilot mode is a huge leak - you have to make an honest conservative guesstimate of your actual implied odds before you call.
|
|
#18
11-08-2007, 06:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Set Mining Math
the advice in this thread is pretty solid regarding the stack:bet sizes you need to set mine profitably (at least i hope so!). one footnote is that as games get more aggressive it starts to become to correct to call 3bets with pocket pairs for pair value - I was reading GP talk about this in his Well today.
but yeah, 3/8 rule is good. don't forget it refers to situations where you know you are facing an overpair that will stack off if you hit your set. my rule of thumb is if his stack is <20x the call (easy to work out) i really want some sort of read to call purely for set odds.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
