200NL - valuetown?

[crunny]

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There is 1-way to make JJ on this board, and 3 ways to make AA. There are 12 ways to make AK, 3 ways to make AQs and 1 ways to make AJs. Based on his stats, I don't see any other hand showing up here unless he plays AQo or KK-QQ bad.

So, 5 hands have you crushed, and you are ahead of 15 hands. How many of the 15 hands call a push? I am guessing AK calls a push most of the time. The push would be 137 into a 145 pot. He gets 2:1 on the call. He needs 33% equity. I can see AK thinking hero has AQ/AT/A7 or a busted flush draw in this spot often enough to justify a call.

Hell, even if AK folded 7/12 times here, you still get 5 calls. Assuming AA, JJ, AJs also call, 5/10 or 50% of the time you get a call you win. You need to win 50% of the time to breakeven on the bet.

I think you have to value bet it. If he has AA, JJ, AJs, then there is nothing you can do.

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Nice analysis. However i think a smaller bet generates higher EV than a push.

[moldman]

Now that the night has passed and I've thought about it more, I still don't have a certain answer.

To me, the fact a 6/3 limps UTG is weird to start off with, and then the fact he leads out the flop when I hit the hand that might make the most sense is strange too. JJ is probably the most likely hand at this point, but then to quad up on the turn? If he had AA on the other hand, which isn't THAT uncommon for someone to limp UTG, but maybe moreso for this guy, wouldn't he raise at some point with the flush draw out there? So, at that point, I figured he either had quads and I was going broke, or I was just giving him too much credit and that he could easily be stupid with KK or AK or something like that and would call my push.

[effang]

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I bet he had AA

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kinda the nature of these help boards...they're usually losing hands no?